Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Modeling the medals

A number of groups have used models to attempt to predict the number of medals that will be won by countries at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers’ model the number of medals a country will win is significantly related to: a) the country’s population, b) its average income levels (as measured by per capita GDP at PPP exchange rates), c) whether the country was previously part of the former Soviet/communist bloc (including Cuba and China), d) whether the country is the host nation, and, e) the country’s medal share in the previous Olympic Games. Running their models PwC predicts that China will narrowly beat the USA for total number of medals (88 vs. 87)

The PwC prediction:

Economic Briefing Paper: Modeling Olympic performance
Scoop: découvrez le tableau des médailles des Jeux 2008

Another prediction:

Let's double-check the models predicted values against the actual totals once the Olympics are over!

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