Random chart - military deaths

Source: Trends in Active-Duty Military Deaths Since 2006 (CRS Report)

Random pictures - Afghanistan

 

 

 

Source: 17 photos that prove the country where America has been fighting its longest war is actually one of the most beautiful on earth

Visit the link for the full, un-cropped pictures and more...

Random charts - Afghan opium

 

Source: Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2015 (12-page PDF)

Random charts - drone strikes

Source: 41 men targeted but 1,147 people killed: US drone strikes – the facts on the ground

"The drones came for Ayman Zawahiri on 13 January 2006, hovering over a village in Pakistan called Damadola. Ten months later, they came again for the man who would become al-Qaida’s leader, this time in Bajaur. Eight years later, Zawahiri is still alive. Seventy-six children and 29 adults, according to reports after the two strikes, are not... 

(Qari Hussain). Hussain was a deputy commander of the Pakistani Taliban, a militant group aligned with al-Qaida that trained the would-be Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad, before his unsuccessful 2010 attack. The drones first came for Hussain years before, on 29 January 2008. Then they came on 23 June 2009, 15 January 2010, 2 October 2010 and 7 October 2010. Finally, on 15 October 2010, Hellfire missiles fired from a Predator or Reaper drone killed Hussain, the Pakistani Taliban later confirmed. For the death of a man whom practically no American can name, the US killed 128 people, 13 of them children, none of whom it meant to harm..."

Random charts - Afghanistan

 

 

 

Source: Quarterly Report to the U.S. Congress: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction Oct 30th, 2014 (276-pg PDF)

Rabbit from a hat?

Well, the administration manages to get a resolution to the Afghan presidential tussle - Ashraf Ghani to be President, with Abdullah Abdullah to some newly created position in a 'power sharing' agreement of some sort...

A success for president Obama and his administration? One hopes so, though their track record on these "pulling a rabbit out of a hat" deals isn't particularly encouraging! Anyone remember the "Tegucigalpa/San Jose" agreement? Or the "Leap Day Deal"?

Read it and weep - here, and here...

Gains...

As 2013 draws to a close a new intelligence report on Afghanistan, as reported by the Washington Post's 'Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns', "... predicts that the gains the United States and its allies have made during the past three years are likely to have been significantly eroded by 2017, even if Washington leaves behind a few thousand troops and continues bankrolling the impoverished nation..." 

This elicited some skepticism, e.g. "Wait. Where Are These “Gains” NIE Says We Might Lose in Afghanistan?' However, clearly they were referring to these! Note the date...

Random charts - Afghan opium

 

 

 

Source: Afghanistan Opium Survey 2013 Summary findings(26-pg PDF)  

"...Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan reached a sobering record high in 2013. According to the 2013 Afghanistan Opium Survey, cultivation amounted to some 209,000 hectares,outstripping the earlier record in 2007 of 193,000 hectares, and representing a 36 per cent increase over 2012. 

Moreover, two provinces that had previously been declared poppy-free, Faryab and Balkh in northern Afghanistan, lost this status. All in all, opium production in 2013 went up to some 5,500 tonnes, a 49 per cent increase over 2012..."

Random chart - Afghan opium

Source: UNODC Afghanistan Opium Survey November 2012

The mother lode?

Every so often we see breathless articles in the news informing us that Afghanistan is sitting on a mother lode of minerals... For example, the recent article 'China Eyes Afghan Goldmine' discusses recent Chinese investments in Afghanistan. It also appears to imply that China is sneakily getting the inside track (those wily orientals!) to the $1 Trillion mother lode!

On the face of it one trillion dollars of mineral reserves sure sounds very impressive, but is it? The June 28th blog entry, 'Random charts', sourced the $1 Trillion figure to 'DoD Afghan Economic Sovereignty, Mineral Wealth Briefing' which provided estimates developed by the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, which concluded:  

"$908B: Current potential value* of metal and industrial mineral development in Afghanistan, at current prices in today’s global economic downturn. (* Known and estimated “undiscovered” resources anticipated by USGS and AGS and using prices as of 12/09)" and provided the chart below.

So, two thirds iron ore and copper. OK, decent mineral deposits that certainly could help the country (should it ever be safe to mine them, that is), but they would not seem to justify the 'breathless' headlines generated e.g. U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan ("Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe") or Afghanistan Holds Enormous Bounty of Rare Earths, Minerals ("Afghanistan's underground wealth could transform it from one of the world's poorest nations into a prosperous major global mining center"), etc.

Not much changes

The June 2008 blog entry, 'Reflex', reflected that not much had changed since this blogger first wrote (in 2002) re how the "... The DoD's first reflex after any error is to deny everything, then to deny everything, then partially admit the error (if the evidence becomes irrefutable) while obfuscating the issue, but never to forthrightly admit that an error has been made...."

Fast forward to 2012, the basic pattern remains, although apologies and cash payoffs have been added to the mix.

First word came of 18 deaths due to an ISAF air strike, subsequently confirmed by Afghan officials. First ISAF denies, providing a detailed counter-narrative:

"An Afghan and coalition security force conducted an operation to detain a Taliban leader in Baraki Barak district, Logar province, today. The leader plans and participates in attacks against Afghan and coalition forces throughout the province. He also commands multiple insurgents and acquires weapons for use in insurgent attacks against Afghan and coalition troops. During the operation, insurgents attacked the Afghan and coalition troops with small-arms fire and a grenade. The security force returned fire and requested a precision airstrike. While conducting a follow-on assessment, the security force discovered two women who had sustained non-life-threatening injuries. The security force provided medical assistance and transported both women to an ISAF medical facility for treatment. As a result of the operation, multiple insurgents were killed and the Afghan and coalition security force seized several weapons and a quantity of explosives..."

Later, while still "unable to confirm or deny" ISAF announces an investigation will be done.

Then an admission of sorts - "...The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has completed its initial assessment of the circumstances surrounding its June 6 mission to detain a Taliban leader in Baraki Barak district, Logar province. ISAF confirms that in addition to the insurgents killed during the operation, it’s also responsible for the unintended, but nonetheless tragic, death of Afghan civilians... ISAF continues to investigate the unfortunate circumstances surrounding this airstrike and remains committed to taking any and all appropriate actions to minimize the likelihood of similar occurrences in the future..." and General John R. Allen, commander, International Security Assistance Force, flew to the area to personally apologize.

Now, it must be admitted that the admission and apology only took two days, as opposed to the weeks or months it often seems to take. Some marginal improvement, however not much has changed....

Perhaps why it isn't working...

Source: NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (NTM-A/CSTC-A) Organizational Chart

Random chart - Iraq, Afghan tribal differences

Source: U.S. Army Human Terrain Report: Afghan Tribal Structure Versus Iraqi Tribal Structure

"... Most US personnel that are serving in Afghanistan have already served a tour in Iraq and are accustomed to doing things “the Iraq way”. Many people are trying to apply the lessons learned in Iraq to Afghanistan, which in many cases is inappropriate. AF2 wants to provide a product to US units to compare and contrast Iraqi tribal structure and Pashtun tribal structure to prevent future missteps by US forces.

The notion of applying ideas that worked in Iraq to Afghanistan is fraught with problems. The “lessons don’t transfer directly,” according to John Nagl, one of the authors of the Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual (FM 3-24). William McCallister, an expert advisor to the Marine Corps on tribal dynamics in Iraq2 said he is “not a fan of taking the Anbar experience and creating TTPs” for a Pashtun context.

The reasons behind this are legion. For one, the historical experiences of Iraqi and Pashtun societies are so dissimilar as to make comparing them difficult, if not impossible. For another, the specific circumstances of each warzone—one a sectarian conflict, the other a fractured society handling an international insurgency—doesn’t allow for easy generalization between the two.

Furthermore, each society is fundamentally different on a structural level. In Iraq, leadership is in a sense “institutionalized,” or “codified” in the sense that there is a set and identifiable structure for community leadership to interact with each other and with the State. In Afghanistan, however, that system is neither “institutionalized” nor “codified” in any real sense; therefore, structures of community leadership and power relationships within and between tribal groups and the state are much more ad hoc and cannot be discussed in a general sense. Comparing these two societies side-by-side demonstrates this, and shows just how difficult it is to draw lessons from one to the other..."

Or not quite... (updated 2/11)

The August 10th, 2011 blog entry, 'Great quotes', highlighted a quote by Marine Gen. John R. Allen, the top commander in Afghanistan, who claimed that “All across Afghanistan, the insurgents are losing. They’re losing territory, they’re losing leadership, they’re losing weapons and supplies, they’re losing public support. More and more, the insurgents are losing resolve and the will to fight.”

Hmm, as suspected, this turns out to be a slight (?) exaggeration. An Army Lieutenant Colonel recently penned an article - Truth, lies and Afghanistan: How military leaders have let us down - which notes the "discrepancy between official statements and the truth on the ground" and takes senior military leaders to task... Some brief quotes:

"... What I saw bore no resemblance to rosy official statements by U.S. military leaders about conditions on the ground... I witnessed the absence of success on virtually every level... I heard many stories of how insurgents controlled virtually every piece of land beyond eyeshot of a U.S. or International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) base..." A must read.

Updated 2/11:

Here's a link to the unclassified version of the report: Dereliction of Duty II: Senior Military Leader’s Loss of Integrity Wounds Afghan War Effort84-page PDF

Brief update II (Afghan fauna)

Source: NatGeo

The July 24th, 2011 bog entry, 'Brief update (Afghan fauna)', linked to an Al Jazeera article reporting that the Wildlife Conservation Society had found "...a surprisingly healthy population of snow leopards... in northeastern Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor..."

Here are a couple of National Geographic articles with additional information and photos:

First Pictures: Snow Leopards Rebounding in Afghanistan
Afghanistan Bright Spot: Wildlife Surviving in War Zones

Eh?

According to the Washington Post, France agrees to two decades of support in Afghanistan, despite attack on its troops. Reading the article the only date referenced with respect to France's involvement comes in the sentence "... French troops will continue to train their Afghan counterparts well beyond 2014..." We also learn that "... Britain’s partnership agreement, which will last through 2022..." and "... Italy’s agreement, which also focuses on the country’s economy and security forces, was described as “long-term past 2014” in a statement from Karzai’s office.."

OK, so the British agreement actually does appear to go out another decade, and I supposed you could called it two decades if you count backwards to 2011... However, France agreeing to "two decades" of support doesn't seem quite supported by the body of the article (as opposed to its headline).

Random charts - Afghanistan

Source: Afghanistan Smart Book: TRADOC Cultural Center (U.S. Army) 224-pg PDF

Great quotes

"... Afghanistan and other troubled lands today cry out for the sort of enlightened foreign administration once provided by self-confident Englishmen in jodhpurs and pith helmets...

... Once Afghanistan has been dealt with, America should turn its attention to Iraq. It will probably not be possible to remove Saddam quickly without a U.S. invasion and occupation--though it will hardly require half a million men, since Saddam's army is much diminished since the Gulf War, and we will probably have plenty of help from Iraqis, once they trust that we intend to finish the job this time. Once we have deposed Saddam, we can impose an American-led, international regency in Baghdad, to go along with the one in Kabul. With American seriousness and credibility thus restored, we will enjoy fruitful cooperation from the region's many opportunists, who will show a newfound eagerness to be helpful in our larger task of rolling up the international terror network that threatens us... "

- Max Boot, October 15th, 2011

Random charts

Source: Transforming Wartime Contracting: Controlling costs, reducing risks

Great quotes

Picture credit

“All across Afghanistan, the insurgents are losing. They’re losing territory, they’re losing leadership, they’re losing weapons and supplies, they’re losing public support. More and more, the insurgents are losing resolve and the will to fight.”

- Marine Gen. John R. Allen, the top commander in Afghanistan