Showing posts with label Technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technology. Show all posts

Thursday, October 12, 2023

Biological Age Testing


I recently took Elysium's ๐ˆ๐ง๐๐ž๐ฑ ๐›๐ข๐จ๐ฅ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐š๐ ๐ž ๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ - https://elysiumhealth.com/products/index - and just received the results. It started off well - overall my 'biological age' is lower than my chronological age. Then I looked at the system age scores, and ๐˜๐ˆ๐Š๐„๐’!


How concerned should I be about the 'brain' score? Well, enough that I've decided to do more of a few of the recommended follow-up actions:
  • Greatly increase my activity and exercise levels!
  • Try to improve my sleep - levels and quality
  • Learn something new - I've signed up with Babbel to learn a new language. 



I'll redo the Index test in 12 months and report back if any of this has made a difference.

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Random Thought


๐‘๐š๐ง๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ: Want to sell pharmaceuticals in the U.S.? The government should require that ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ such entities develop a ‘๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐ฎ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ข๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง’ for their operations. A standard model to be developed (in cooperation with pharmaceutical manufacturers, etc.) by NIST who will define the data elements, etc., definitions, metrology/measurement, information collection, reporting, technology used, etc., etc. 

Data from the various manufacturers’ digital twins would regularly (e.g. daily) ‘feed’ a government-controlled ‘๐ฉ๐ก๐š๐ซ๐ฆ๐š ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐ฎ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ข๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง.’ 

This will require enabling legislation e.g. to overcome manufacturer claims of proprietary information, trade secrets, etc. that they historically have used to not provide information. A wide variety of “carrots” and "sticks" will need to be used to gain industry cooperation, for example the government underwriting the costs of development, deployment, and implementation, with the benefits of having such a system accruing to the manufacturers. 

Once the FDA’s QMMP is deployed to manufacturers its data can then also be folded into the digital twin. With the resulting complete transparency and end-to-end visibility across the entire industry now available to the government (manufacturing information, quality information, supply chain information, etc.), the use of AI, ML, and other such tools should support the ability to forecast and anticipate problems, issues, disruptions, etc. so that the appropriate efforts at prevention, mitigation, etc. can be carried out successfully.

6-part article of which the above is a sub-part



Thursday, August 10, 2023

Book Review: The Death of Death

 

๐•ป๐–Ž๐–ˆ๐–™๐–š๐–—๐–Š ๐•ฎ๐–—๐–Š๐–‰๐–Ž๐–™: ๐•พ๐•น๐–Ž ๐–š๐–˜๐–Ž๐–“๐–Œ '๐•ด๐–’๐–†๐–Œ๐–Š ๐•ฒ๐–Š๐–“๐–Š๐–—๐–†๐–™๐–”๐–— ๐–‡๐–ž ๐•ธ๐–Ž๐–ˆ๐–—๐–”๐–˜๐–”๐–‹๐–™ ๐•ญ๐–Ž๐–“๐–Œ' ๐–Ž๐–“ ๐–™๐–๐–Š ๐–˜๐–™๐–ž๐–‘๐–Š ๐–”๐–‹ ๐•ต๐–”๐–๐–“ ๐•ญ๐–š๐–“๐–ž๐–†๐–“'๐–˜ '๐•ฟ๐–๐–Š ๐•ป๐–Ž๐–‘๐–Œ๐–—๐–Ž๐–’'๐–˜ ๐•ป๐–—๐–”๐–Œ๐–—๐–Š๐–˜๐–˜.'

Here I review “The Death of Death: The Scientific Possibility of Physical Immortality and its Moral Defense”. The authors are Josรฉ Luis Cordeiro and David Wood; and you can scroll to the bottom where (in the interest of complete transparency) I provide some background information on my connection to one of the authors.

From the back cover: “Is death inevitable? Until now, nothing has been more certain... But according to Josรฉ Luis Cordeiro and David Wood, the prospect of death is no longer inevitable... Cordeiro and Wood not only present the major developments, initiatives, and ideas for eternal life, but also share powerful arguments for seeing death for what it is: the last undefeated disease."

The Table of Contents

Preliminary Warning: Even before I get into my review, I would like to preface it with this warning: This is not a quick or light read! A little over two hundred pages, this book is “dense!” Dense in the sense of encyclopedic, as it crams in an incredible amount of data and information from areas as diverse as history, philosophy, theology, geopolitics, and the sciences – general chemistry biology, and physics; cell biology, cryonics, genetics, etc. I read the book over a three-week period, and I’m a “2-3 books every weekend” type of guy! In reality, if a reader were to follow up by reviewing the copious notes (in the form of links) provided at the end of each chapter and dipping into the 9-page bibliography this could easily take several months to get through. 

Suggestion to the authors: perhaps you should talk to someone about turning this into a university course!

Despite having a density approaching that of a black hole, the authors are masterful in pulling off the feat of integrating everything and delivering it with a logical, coherent “flow” that enlightens while not overwhelming the reader. Finish the book and you will have been introduced to concepts and theories as diverse as ‘negligible senescence,’ ‘Malthusian trap,’ ‘longevity escape velocity,’ ‘terror management theory,’ the Pyszczyncki paradox,’ and many, many others. And you may find yourself convinced by the book's message... Or perhaps not.

So, what is in the book? It starts off discussing the possibility of biological immortality, providing examples of this in several lower life forms and speculating if this can be extended to man. This is followed by the scientific study of aging - what it is, what are the factors that affect it, and much more. Next up is a look at a new, developing anti-aging "industry," which traces the ecosystem of groups that have developed. It dives into 'scientific rejuvenation' and highlights eminent researchers/organizations and some of their successes and advancements in various related fields. A quick side trip ventures into the importance of and examples of exponential thinking, providing additional information on investors and different scientific approaches. Next up is a discussion of costs - the existing costs related to aging and death (for example, costs related to the burden of age-related disease); looking at research, etc. costs; and a discussion of the quantification of financial benefits that could theoretically result from a 'longevity dividend.' Then back to the subject of 'the end of death,' looking at many of the objections to this proposition and providing counterpoints. Current medical skepticism on this subject is compared to historical examples where medical thoughts and beliefs that had lasted for decades and centuries were eventually proven incorrect (two examples being medicine's reaction to Semmelweis and his ideas, and the practice of bloodletting, respectively). Next is a brief side trip into the subject of cryopreservation, set up as a Plan B "bridge" to the future. The authors then discuss the path forward, discussing potential obstacles on the 'abolition of aging' pathway. Finally, they conclude that the elimination of aging and death is an idea whose time is now upon us! Their final clarion call? "The future begins today. The future begins here. The future begins with us. The future begins with you today. Who if not you? When if not now? Where if not here? Join the revolution against aging and death! Death to Death!"

Conclusion: I definitely recommend that everyone read this book. You will not regret it. Even if not fully convinced you will still be greatly informed and 'up to speed' on where the world currently stands on this very interesting subject that effects everyone!

As for me, I started out very skeptical, see my tweet of July 13th below:


And now? I remain skeptical regarding 'the death of death.' Somewhat paradoxically, the more I read about the multiple scientific areas being pursued (senolytics, telomeres, stem cells, etc., etc.) the less I felt that the overall proposition was valid. The very multiplicity of approaches merely reinforced in my mind the astounding complexity of the endeavor and the difficulty of attaining the goal! Of course, this could just be an indication of a paucity of imagination on my part!




In the interest of full transparency, here is some ๐›๐š๐œ๐ค๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง:

I first met Josรฉ Luis while both of us were attending The Fund for American Studies’ Institute on Comparative Political and Economic Systems summer program. It was what now seems like eons ago (in 1988!) and was held at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. We struck up a friendship back then that has lasted, even though we are in touch rather infrequently via email, and have only met four or five times over the intervening years. My last email to Jose was probably six plus months ago, and I haven’t see him ‘in the flesh’ for several years. Below is a reference I gave Josรฉ Luis on LinkedIn almost a decade ago, it still describes him to ‘T.” I do not know, and have never met, the co-author, David Wood.

This review is entirely my own, I purchased the book via Amazon when the English edition became available, then read the book.



I'm not exactly sure why, but as I was about to read "The Death of Death" it brought to my mind the tale of Christian in John Bunyan's "The Pilgrim's Progress."

In this case, Mr. and Mrs. Tout-le-Monde are weighed down by great burdens (here their impending old age and death), but seek to shed them and get to life eternal in the Celestial City. I used "Image Creator by Microsoft Bing, powered by DALL-E" to generate some relevant images that I then combined to produce the header picture.

Additionally, the picture also includes some of their travails along the way - their transit of The Slough of Despond; having to choose the correct path, one of three at the Hill of Difficulty (the correct path being the most difficult-looking one, with the easier-looking byways leading to "Danger" and "Destruction"); having to pass on the path between the two lions; and having to defeat Apollyon (a huge demonic creature with fish's scales, the mouth of a lion, feet of a bear, second mouth on his belly, and dragon's wings). I also included a LEV (Longevity Escape Velocity) signpost! Completing the analogy, Josรฉ Luis Cordeiro and David Wood fill the roles of the Evangelist and the Interpreter.

Covers of various editions (English, French, German, Spanish, Chinese, Turkish, Bulgarian)

Thursday, May 18, 2023

The Tipping Point?

TSMC & TSMC-AZ in the scales. Image credit: SNi 5/23

Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People's Republic of China) have been in the news recently as tensions between the two have increased recently. The U.S. ostensibly agreed to a "One China" policy with The Shanghai Communique of 1972.


FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1969–1976, VOLUME XVII, CHINA, 1969–1972 203. Joint Statement Following Discussions With Leaders of the People’s Republic of China1 Shanghai, February 27, 1972.

The U.S. has always maintained some level of ambiguity, acknowledging there is only one China while simultaneously expressing opposition to any unilateral changes of the (undefined) status quo. And there are variations on how the U.S. views Taiwan which have varied depending on who is speaking or acting on the subject e.g. see 'The One-China Policy in Transition.'

OK, given this background, let's focus on semiconductors. Here is a backgrounder by McKinsey & Co. One of the most important and valuable companies that designs and manufactures cutting-edge semiconductors is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) with the majority of its facilities located on the island of Taiwan. This items plays an important role in considerations related to Taiwan, China, and any potential military solution initiated by the Chinese leadership. For example, "๐๐ซ๐จ๐ค๐ž๐ง ๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ" is the idea that if China invades Taiwan ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘ˆ.๐‘†. ๐‘ โ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘ข๐‘™๐‘‘ ๐‘‘๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ก๐‘Ÿ๐‘œ๐‘ฆ ๐‘‡๐‘†๐‘€๐ถ ๐‘ก๐‘œ ๐‘๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ฃ๐‘’๐‘›๐‘ก ๐ถโ„Ž๐‘–๐‘›๐‘Ž ๐‘“๐‘Ÿ๐‘œ๐‘š ๐‘”๐‘Ž๐‘–๐‘›๐‘–๐‘›๐‘” ๐‘๐‘œ๐‘›๐‘ก๐‘Ÿ๐‘œ๐‘™. This was first mooted in 2021 in a scholarly journal, Parameters (U.S. Army War College); however, this has been picked up and similar thoughts have been expressed by various U.S. officials, politicians, etc.

However, adherents of this supposedly 'deterrent' suggestion appear not to have seriously thought through this scenario! Since China is already cut off from TSMC chips by U.S. sanctions (see here and here), this would only effect China ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง๐ -๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ฆ while being a huge and immediate blow to the U.S. (and world) economy. As such, this threat may ๐ง๐จ๐ญ be quite the deterrent some think it is! In fact this could, perversely, ๐›๐ž ๐š๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž for China to take action sooner!

Meanwhile, there is another 'wild card' at play in this consideration - following pressure by the U.S. government, TSMC is currently building a huge fab/foundry in the U.S. ( in Arizona) which when completed (initial production is forecast to begin in 2024, with a second fab coming online in 2026) would ensure a safe and sufficient supply of chips for the U.S. So, what might be some of the consequences of this new plant (which I will refer to as TSMC-AZ) to the various parties? There are both beneficial and adverse possibilities.

  • What effect might this have on the U.S. commitment to and support of Taiwan? With its reliance on Taiwan-based production eliminated, the opportunity cost to the U.S. of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be greatly reduced, and it is conceivable that this could lessen the likelihood of the U.S. choosing to take military action in support of Taiwan!

  • What effect might this have on the Chinese calculus with respect to their timeline to 'incorporate' Taiwan? This could depend on their forecast of what the U.S. might do. If they come to believe that the U.S. would indeed be more likely to follow through with a 'broken nest' approach once they were insulated by the Arizona-based manufacturing, then China might feel the need to move on Taiwan before TMSC-AZ achieves critical mass. However, if they come to believe that U.S. support for Taiwan would 'soften' after TMSC-AZ comes online and that 'broken nest' would not be implemented, that might cause the Chinese leadership to opt for a longer time frame before taking any action.

With TMSC-AZ coming along, we might know sooner rather than later!

On a side note, simply destroying the main fabs/foundries in Taiwan, while certainly dealing China a major setback, would not necessarily eliminate the associated knowledge, expertise, and know-how. To really cause a decades-long setback it would be necessary to also destroy all the design facilities, online documentation, knowledge repositories, etc., and also the associated human capital. If I were a Taiwan-based semiconductor engineer/expert, I might be more than a little uncomfortable in the near future.

Monday, January 11, 2021

Echo Frames - First look


I ordered a pair of Echo Frames from Amazon... and prescription lenses specifically to fit Echo Frames via LensesRx. Note: to do the latter you'll need your prescription - numbers for the Sph, Cyl, Axis, and Add for OS and OD (your left and right eye -oculus sinister and oculus dexter), as well as your PD, or pupillary distance




The prescription lenses are easily popped in. Next you 'add' your charged Echo Frames to 'Your Devices' in the Alexa app and off you go... 


You don't get much of a choice (back, blue, tortoise versions of the basic frame) while buying the Echo frames, but it looks fine, albeit slightly on the "chunky" side.


The technical specifications:



Echo Frames Reviews:


Echo Frames YouTube Reviews:

Amazon Halo & Amazfit X -- Second look


October 2020 I got my Indiegogo-backed Amazfit X, then in December I got a Amazon Halo band, and they both seem like pretty cool gadgets. There is some overlap in what they measure, including both steps and sleep quality.  


In sleep they both provide an overall sleep score and how long you slept, and then sub-details such as the time spent  in each phase of sleep i.e. light sleep, REM, and deep sleep. The data and information is supplied numerically and graphically.  To check out how close the two sets of measurements were I compared the daily records for one week. 

Right from the first day there were indications of a problem, the two sets of numbers diverged widely! For example for the first night: 

  • The Halo said that I had slept for 4 hours 48 minutes, the Amazfit X for 7 hours 44 minutes
  • Halo had 3 hours 40 minutes (63%) of light sleep; Amazfit X reported 3 hours 50 minutes, or 49%
  • Halo had 1 hour eight minutes (24%) of REM; Amazfit X had 2 hours four minutes (27%)
  • The Halo showed zero deep sleep; the Amazfit X had 1 hour 50m minutes (24%)


The differences were as startling every night of the seven days that I compared! So now I found myself in a quandary and unsure of my sleep numbers - was the Halo correct, was the Amazfit X correct, or were both of them perhaps wrong?! 

In the end I decided that it was the Halo that had to be incorrect mostly because it claimed that I only slept below 5 hours a night for the entire week while the Amazfit X reported that I slept between seven and eight hours every night

Given that I generally went to bed between 10 and 10:30 pm while getting up at around 7 a.m. (i.e. a period of eight and a half hours), for the Halo to be right I'd have to be awake over three and a half hours every night. And while it is true that I did get up several times (interestingly, here they agreed I was up 6 times) every night, each was for a very few minutes and I always fell back asleep in a very few minutes!

More importantly, the deep sleep time reported by the Halo TOTALED one hour and 20 minutes for the ENTIRE WEEK. I looked it up and apparently "The average health adult gets roughly one to 2 hours of deep sleep per 8 hours of nightly sleep." The AmazfitX showed a few days where my deep sleep was on the low side (15%), and others where it was higher (up to 30%), which seemed much more likely!



Next, while the step counts were closer, they still occasionally showed quite different numbers, for example on this date they diverged by a significant 20%! 

The Halo also can measure body fat percentage; you take photos of yourself and it uses an algorithm to calculate body fat. I tried this out, and was appalled by the result. Now I'm not in particularly good shape but at 5 foot nine and 160 pounds I am in the 'normal' range for BMI... True, it's closer to the top of the normal range (18.5% o 25%), but still. My scale reports my body fat percentage as 19.5%, however, the Halo estimate came back at 31%... more than 55% higher! 

The end result? The Amazon Halo has been relegated to the "closet of misfit gadgets!"



Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Amazon Halo - First look


I decided to try out the Amazon Halo sports band, so I entered my information and waited for an "invitation." Sprang for a 'Winter + Silver' version:



And on my wrist, next to the Amazfit X:


The Halo measures basic activity tracking (steps, activity scoring, sleep, etc.), as well as your body composition (fat percentage) and tone ("Analyze qualities of your voice like energy and positivity to help strengthen communication.") 

The technical specifications (click to enlarge):


Charge it up, download and install the app, pair it to your phone, and off you go...

Amazon Halo Reviews:

Amazon Halo Review  (Tom's guide)

Amazon Halo YouTube Reviews:

Amazon Halo Review | Blondes and Bagels