Showing posts with label War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War. Show all posts
Sunday, February 11, 2024
Sunday, September 8, 2019
Saturday, July 20, 2019
Monday, July 8, 2019
Friday, September 15, 2017
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
So, what's the story on Aleppo?
Listening to the radio and reading the news lately there has been a lot about the Russian-backed advance of the Syrian army on the city of Aleppo. To read it, the city of Aleppo is in jeopardy of being attacked by the Syrians, putting the (reduced) population of 300,000 in danger of being killed. These people are menaced not just by indiscriminate Russian bombing, but also by the perfidious Syrian forces who will cut their water and electricity, and will probably also starve them.
Read beyond the main news sources and you find that the Syrian government actually already controls (and has always controlled) quite a large part of the city, that the majority of the people in Aleppo live on the government-controlled side; and thus it seems that they are unlikely to be carpet-bombed by the Russians. Additionally, the main water source for Aleppo has historically been Lake Assad and a major source for their electricity has been the hydroelectric dam there. A quick check reveals that both the lake and the dam are controlled by ISIS forces (e.g. see here, here, here, and here) and as a result there have been multiple sustained periods without water and electricity over the past years for both the government-held and rebel-held sides of the city. A mistake or so one can understand, but overall there is such misreporting that it is hard to believe that it is just the result of incompetence!
Further, looking at maps of the military situation in Aleppo we see that every one of them shows four zones of control - the Syrian government, ISIS, the Kurds, and "the opposition" (or occasionally "rebels."):
So, who is "the opposition," or "rebels," or "moderate rebels" (pace President Obama...). Googling, one gets Liwa al-Tawhid ("one of the largest in a group of opposition forces to seize portions of Aleppo in the July 2012 uprising... By joining the Islamic Front in 2013, the group tied itself to more
hardline Islamist organizations like Ahrar al-Sham, along with their
more hardline Islamic state aspirations."); Jaish al-Mujahideen ("... a coalition force established on 3 January 2014
with fighters deployed in Aleppo's western sectors. The coalition force
presence in the western rural areas of Aleppo allows them to control
some of the supply routes from Turkey to Aleppo. The coalition force is
fighting both Syrian government forces and the Islamic State of Iraq and
the Sham (ISIS) in Aleppo. According to a statement by the Jaish
al-Mujahideen it is comprised of the following factions: The
Noureddin al-Zengi Battalions, The Ansar Brigade, The Fastaqim Kama
Umirta Gathering, The Islamic Freedom Brigade The Amjad al-Islam
Brigade, The Ansar al-Khilafa Brigade, and The Jund al-Haramain
Brigade "); the Ansar al-Deen Front ("... group is comprised of the Green
Brigade, Jaish al-Muhajrin, Sham al-Islam, and Harakat Fajr al-Sham. The
alliance group diverse membership is seen in Harakat Fajr Sham
al-Islamiya representing mostly Syrians from the Aleppo area, Harakat
Sham al-Islam comprised of Moroccan fighters, the Green Battalion
comprised of Saudi Arabia fighters and Jaish al-Mujahireen wal-Ansar
comprised of Chechen and other Russian-speaking fighters."); The al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra) ("... mostly based in Aleppo and Deir Ez-Zor..."); Ahrar al-Sham ("... also present in Hamah and Aleppo."). And many others...
It is very difficult to keep track of all the groups and sub-groups as they merge into a myriad of 'fronts' and 'armies' of various sorts (e.g. Army of Conquest, Army of Islam, etc.), even assuming that one wants to distinguish between them... not always the case! For example: "... The U.S. army spent almost a decade refusing to distinguish between al-Qaeda in Iraq and other armed Sunni groups, labeling them all “terrorists” and bombing them with little concern for their differences. But in Syria, the White House has suddenly become a scrupulous advocate of nuance.. The United States has therefore preferred to describe these groups as problematic albeit legitimate members of the Syrian opposition and it has resisted their inclusion on a terrorist list.."
And the various groups work together as allies when it suits them. Thus, for example, per a 2014 interview with Abu Omar, a fighter in the Islamic Front’s Liwa al-Tawhid, about the insurgent offensive in southwestern Aleppo: "... There are a lot of factions like the Islamic Front which includes Liwa
al-Tawhid, Ahrar a-Sham, Suqur a-Sham, Jaish al-Islam, and Jaish
al-Mujahideen. Jubhat a-Nusra is obviously a large faction and is very
active on the ground. Some of the small brigades are coordinating and
have created the Ahl a-Sham Joint Operations Room, which includes the
biggest factions. The Islamic Front controls the largest part of Aleppo..."
Most recently a group of "the opposition" announced that Hisham al-Sheikh, aka Abu Jaber, Emir of Arar al-Sham will be the leader of the rebels in Aleppo.
These are the "rebels" ("the opposition") that so many (e.g. Senator John McCain) want to support logistically and even militarily! Quote: "...McCain has long criticized the Obama administration's Syria policy,
calling it a strategy "debacle," and had previously said that more arms
should be given to Syrian opposition groups, including man-portable
air-defense systems (MANPADS), to counter any kind of air force
targeting them..."
The Institute for The Study of War has a detailed write-up (17-pg PDF) of the various "rebels" in Aleppo, while arguing for their support, arguing that by attacking Aleppo and bombing them, the Syrians and Russians are actually strengthening the Nusrah Front - "...Aleppo Provinceis home to numerous opposition powerbrokers that remain relatively independent from Jabhat al Nusra, and therefore offer a potential cadre of opposition fighters that could help the U.S. achieve American objectives in Syria. A surrender by besieged opposition groups in Aleppo to the Syrian regime would eliminate this potential ground partner in Syria. It is both more likely and more dangerous, however, that the experience of a drawn out siege in Aleppo will radicalize the opposition and cement the leadership of Jabhat al Nusra in northern Syria..." Thus they justify support for "the opposition" on the 'thin reeds' of "relatively independent" and "potential" cadre!
Of course, comparatively they seem like founts of wisdom compared to those who choose to believe claims like these: a) The rebels (other than the Nusrah Front and ISIS) don't really mean what they say! "... Lister has spent the last ten months meeting with the leaderships of
Syria’s most important rebel groups, and found that there is a crucial
distinction between “public hyperbole and private attitudes.” While many
of Syria’s rebel groups now feel obliged to make some form of Islamist
incantation in public—and some of them even mean some of it in
private—the rebel groups, which is to say not Nusra or
ISIS or the independent gangs of foreign Salafi jihadists who have
intruded into Syria’s torment, are willing to resolve differences
“through dialogue,” Lister writes..." And b) While the Nusrah Front leaders are hard core al-Qaeda, their fighters are actually closet moderates: "...But the rank-and-file even of Nusra are not al-Qaeda loyalists;
their overwhelming goal is to defeat the regime, the resources for
which Nusra seemed to offer, a clear majority of them want a democratic
system after Assad, and an even clearer majority have no aspirations
beyond Syria’s borders. These fighters could be pulled into the
mainstream, leaving Nusra’s core to be forcibly neutralised once it is
down to the irreconcilables..."
Monday, September 28, 2015
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Random charts - drone strikes
"The drones came for Ayman Zawahiri on 13 January 2006, hovering over a village in Pakistan called Damadola. Ten months later, they came again for the man who would become al-Qaida’s leader, this time in Bajaur. Eight years later, Zawahiri is still alive. Seventy-six children and 29 adults, according to reports after the two strikes, are not...
(Qari Hussain). Hussain was a deputy commander of the Pakistani Taliban, a militant group aligned with al-Qaida that trained the would-be Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad, before his unsuccessful 2010 attack. The drones first came for Hussain years before, on 29 January 2008. Then they came on 23 June 2009, 15 January 2010, 2 October 2010 and 7 October 2010. Finally, on 15 October 2010, Hellfire missiles fired from a Predator or Reaper drone killed Hussain, the Pakistani Taliban later confirmed. For the death of a man whom practically no American can name, the US killed 128 people, 13 of them children, none of whom it meant to harm..."
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Monday, September 1, 2014
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Update VII - MEZFWMD update
Previous blog entries referencing MEZFWMD:
NPT Review Conference 2010 - Jun 13th, 2010
Getting to agreement - Nov 29th, 2010
Earlier blog entries had discussed how the U.S. evidenced zero interest in actually supporting movement towards the setting up of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East (MEZFWMD) while simultaneously hailing the May 2010 NPT Review Conference final document as a "significant achievement" by President Obama!
A paper, 'International Law, Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones and the Proposed Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East',discussed nuclear weapons free zones (NWFZs0 in general and issues around one in the Middle East. It ends on the hopeful note that the non-occurrence of the 2012 conference does not indicate the demise of the effort, noting that it took thirty years for the Latin America and Caribbean NWFZ to come into being...
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Random picture - WWII poster
Source: The Enemy: Windows on War
"This gruesome scene plays on human phobias about rats, eating
dead bodies to the bone. Both specimens here, Hitler to the top and the
diminutive Goebbels below, have vampire-like blood dripping from their
jaws. The fires of destruction rage in the background, and ruined
buildings are the detritus of Allied action. A poor unfortunate
German soldier gnawed to death must have died in his boots, bottom
left, and his rifle is thrown down, bottom right. The discarded German helmet and the words imply these are Germans
suffering at the hands of their own leader. Designed on the one hand to
capture the death and destruction of Hitler’s policy, this poster
plays on deep-seated feelings of revulsion and vengeance."
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Monday, September 9, 2013
Hmm...
OK, so there has been a lot of talk about 'proof' that Assad gave the order to use sarin on civilians... This blogger observes that much of it seems to be of the 'well it's obvious that only Assad (or the Syrian army) could have done this' type statements, and that the administration seems to labor under the misapprehension that the continued repetition of statements such as this by multiple administration officials in multiple venues adds to the "proof."
However, let's look closely at what has been reported on this topic by segments of the press based on purported statements by German officials. First reports surfaced that the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND, or German intelligence) had wiretap evidence! As the story goes the Germans had intercepted communications between an operative of Assad ally Hezbollah and Iran, and that "... Assad was desperate to halt the rebel advances
in the suburbs of Syria's capital after a mortar attack on the
president's motorcade as he traveled to a mosque during Ramadan." As a result Assad "lost his nerve" and "made a big mistake" by ordering the attack..
Wow, sure sounds definitive! Also, this would seem to answer a question raised by many, asking why Assad would choose to openly use chemical weapons just as U.N. chemical weapons inspectors were in the country... and that a mere 10 minutes drive away from their hotel room! He "lost his nerve" after a mortar attack on his motorcade!
Umm, one small problem with this time line - Ramadan ended on August 7th and the Ghouta attack occurred on August 21st. Not exactly indicative of a "lost his nerve," panicked response... It was, however, a nice touch attributing the "proof" to Hezbollah!
Then soon thereafter different reports were that the BND said that the chemical weapons attacks “might not have been sanctioned by Assad.”
And this blogger's absolute favorite - an article that has both versions in the exact same article! "... President Bashar al-Assad did not personally order last month's chemical weapons attack near Damascus that has triggered calls for US military intervention, and blocked numerous requests from his military commanders to use chemical weapons against regime opponents in recent months, a German newspaper
has reported , citing unidentified, high-level national security sources....
Schindler said that BND had intercepted a telephone call in which a high-ranking member of Hezbollah in Lebanon told the Iranian embassy in Damascus that Assad had made a big mistake when he gave the order to use the chemicals, the magazine Der Spiegel said."
Wow, just wow.
Syria Crisis: Hezbollah Wiretaps Reveal Assad Ordered Sarin Attacks after 'Losing his Nerve'
Gas Attack: Germany Offers Clue in Search for Truth in Syria
German intelligence concludes sarin gas used on Assad’s orders – reports
Syria Chemical Weapons Attack ‘Not Ordered’ by Assad – Report
Assad did not order Syria chemical weapons attack, says German press
Sunday, August 4, 2013
Five years on...
It's coming up on the fifth anniversary of the 2008 South Ossetia War (a.k.a. the Russia-Georgia War, the Five-Day War, etc.). Here is one remembrance. An interview with then-President Dimitri Medvedev. And a few other relevant links from a variety of sources:
Georgian attitudes towards Russia:
Source: Public Attitudes in Georgia (June 2013)
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update - Georgia - Jun 1st, 2013
Misc update (Georgia) - May 18th, 2012
Misc update (Georgia) - Dec 28th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Monday, June 24, 2013
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