Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Non-sequiturs, etc.

As I read reporting on the news, politics, science, and all manner of subjects it is quite amazing to me to see so many of what I consider to be untruthful, inaccurate, illogical, and sometimes even nonsensical items... replete with non-sequiturs, leaps of logic, full of misunderstandings (sometimes unintentional, sometimes perhaps intentional), etc. Here are a few examples:

 

I. Apparently a new subject for litigation is the 'follow' and 'block' functionality of various social media vehicles such as Twitter, Facebook, etc., see: Trump’s Not the Only One Blocking Constituents on Twitter.

Apparently a number of people are annoyed at various politicians have 'blocked' them after they "voiced dissent." They are claiming that "losing this form of access to public officials violates constituents’ First Amendment rights to free speech and to petition the government for a redress of grievances." In fact, they supposedly claim that "it’s akin to being thrown out of a town hall meeting for holding up a protest sign."

The Executive Director of The Knight Institute said "Though the architects of the Constitution surely didn’t contemplate presidential Twitter accounts, they understood that the president must not be allowed to banish views from public discourse simply because he finds them objectionable,” 

Hmm, I'm not exactly sure how blocking someone on Twitter (note: I routinely block all accounts that 'follow' me that appear to be bots, purveyors of MLM, and other accounts that do not appear to be "real"people... and since there are so many of these I have blocked hundreds of accounts!) in any way abridges their access to public discourse. Hell, it does not even stop their use of Twitter, it just means that they don't show up in the blocker's timeline! And, after having been blocked by others, one may not to able to follow them, but one can still go and look at their tweets any time he/she feels like it, via direct navigation to the blocker's feed...

Apparently some folks not only want to vent their frustration on Twitter/Facebook, they also expect the person they are venting at to be obliged to see/read their tweets/posts (at least if they are an elected representative).  That seems to be quite a stretch!



II. Next up is this article: 'Trump Administration Returns Copies of Report on C.I.A. Torture to Congress.' It would have you believe that the Trump administration is working to deep-six Congress' "torture report" by conspiring with the Republican chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Apparently, "The Senate Intelligence Committee, which was run by Democrats when the executive summary was released, sent copies of the entire report to at least eight federal agencies, asking that they incorporate it into their records — a move that would have made the documents subject to requests under the Freedom of Information Act. That law, which allows citizens, the news media and other groups to request access to information held by the federal government, does not apply to congressional records..."


Contrast the scummy Republicans (working to let the report "remain hidden") with the virtuous Democrats (working to make sure that the report becomes available to the general public). One small problem with this characterization... the President referred to in the first paragraph, the one fighting a "pitched battle over how the history is told" is President Obama, and he was on the side of keeping the report a secret. Had he been on the side of disclosure, the report could have been declassified and released! Something you would never understand from this article, which, while recounting factual details, at the very least has glossed over a significant part of the truth!



III. On to the next article, 'This is what would happen if North Korea launched a real attack.' The article begins as follows:



"President Trump would have “maybe 10 minutes” to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike against North Korea — should it ever fire a missile that’s capable of reaching the US mainland, experts say. 

Speaking to the Associated Press about what would happen in the event of a nuclear strike from the North, scientist David Wright, of the UCS Global Security Program, and rocket analyst Markus Schiller, of ST Analytics in Germany, described how the drama would unfold. 

“The timelines are short,” Wright explained. “Even for long-range missiles, there are a lot of steps that go into detecting the launch and figuring out what it is, leaving the president with maybe 10 minutes to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike.” 

So, according to this expert the President has "maybe ten minutes to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike" on being informed of a North Korean ballistic missile launch (once they have a credible, working missile that is)!  What a load of codswallop!  Say North Korea launches a nuclear-tipped ICBM, say even a half dozen... why exactly does the President have only 10 minutes to make a decision? He could wait an hour, a day., a week, a month... and then order a retaliatory strike.

Now if it was a case of hundreds of ICBMs coming from Russia, then there may be a very short timetable, because it could be case of "use them or lose them!" Even in such a scenario, given the nuclear triad with resources around the globe, it is highly likely that the U.S. could absorb an attack.. and still maintain a second-strike capability, even if you buy the 'end-of-life-as-we know-it EMP' scenarios!

The bottom line? The 'only ten minutes to respond to a North Korean nuclear missile' meme is risible, and the so-called 'expert' should be ashamed of peddling such nonsense!


IV.  On to the latest leaked NSA document on Russian "hacking" of the U.S. presidential "election" as detailed by an article published by The Intercept



One problem with this article was its use of multiple, different characterizations of exactly what the scope of the attack consisted of. In the article this was variously characterized as  a "cyber effort against elements of the U.S. election and voting infrastructure" and "...Russian hacking may have breached at least some elements of the voting system..." and also "...targeting voter registration software..." among others.

Another problem is the article simultaneously included a number of (mild) reassurances from the leaked document (e.g."unknown whether the aforementioned spear-phishing deployment successfully compromised all the intended victims, and what potential data from the victim could have been exfiltrated") with various speculations from "experts" about worst-case scenarios. However, at least The Intercept covered it all, clearly doing a better job than much of the other reporting which lost all nuance and turned it into "The Russians hacked the elections"

Friday, May 5, 2017

There's certainly 'fake news' out there...


Ever since the U.S. elections the hot topic has been "fake news." As usually in 'Russian fake news.. propaganda... kompromat... (it always sounds 'sexier' if you throw in some foreign words!) was responsible for Hilary Clinton's election loss.' For example, per Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) Russia was not only responsible for the prolific production of 'fake news' but also managed to "... generate news down to specific areas... were able to (affect) specific areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, where you would not have been receiving off of whoever your vendor might have been, ‘Trump versus Clinton’ from the waning days of the election. But instead, ‘Clinton is sick,’ or ‘Clinton is taking money’ from some source..." and trick the Google algorithm so that "... you wouldn't get Fox or ABC, The New York Times; what you get is four out of the first five news stories that popped up were Russian propaganda..." (Note: he did throw an obligatory "reported to me" in there somewhere, but he was rather categorical that all this actually happened...)

The 'fake news' bandwagon then rolled on to star in the upcoming French and German elections. 

Being in the U.S. I certainly saw a ton of (frankly) crap in the run up to the election... Hilary Clinton faints, folks speculate about why, some with outlandish theories... Picture of Hilary Clinton being helped up some stairs? Ditto. Candidate Trump refuses to release his tax returns? Folks speculate about why, some with outlandish theories... Are we seeing a pattern here? However, after the elections everything seemed to get rolled up in the "fake news" meme. I must say I didn't see any more than the usual level of crap (note: at least 20-30 of everything out there on the 'net); but perhaps I wasn't in an area specifically 'targeted!'

So, it was interesting when I ran across this online article by "Die Welt" purporting to unmask a specific example of 'fake news.' So, according to this reporting 'fake news' was being circulated that Emmanuel Macron is gay and that (per Die Welt) this allegation (Macron being a "closeted homosexual") was 'fake news' put out specifically by "... the pro-Russian propaganda website Sputnik on Feb. 4." Strangely enough, although this was a web story it did not include a link to the Sputnik article with the "fake news." Perhaps this was a high-minded attempt not to further propagate 'fake news' (more on that later).

Well, Google is your friend (except, perhaps, when Mark Warner believes it is being subverted by the Russians!) I used Google and immediately found the Sputnik article in question: 'Ex-French Economy Minister Macron Could Be 'US Agent' Lobbying Banks' Interests.' A read of the article doesn't quite bear out the Die Welt allegation. Yes, the article references Macron being gay; however, what it reported was that this ex-minister and sitting member of the French parliament made accusations about Macron being a stalking horse for U.S. financial interests and then went on to insinuate that Macron might be gay. And Sputnik reported that the candidate had denied a rumor about being gay (along with other allegations e.g. misuse of government funds).

So, Sputnik reported (factually) that an ex-minister had made allegations and insinuations about Macron and that Macron had denied a number of allegations... and both included his sexual proclivities. I'm hard pressed to see how this is 'fake news.' On the other hand, the Die Welt's article certainly misconstrued (at best) or lied (at worst) about Sputnik's article! In this particular case I would have to say that of the two articles, the Die Welt article claims the title of  'fake news.' So, very likely Die Welt not linking to the Sputnik article was not some high-minded attempt to prevent the further propagation of 'fake news,' but an attempt to make it harder to see that their article was the one stretching the truth the most!


P.S. It is to be noted that the Macron campaign refused to accredit Sputnik and some other news outlets on the grounds that they were illegitimate and purveyors of 'fake news.' And when Marine Le Pen asked Macron about off-shore accounts, which was followed by some fake documents "proving" the same the Macron campaign again fingered Sputnik... In response the editors of Sputnik wrote the Macron campaign an open letter pointing out that they had reported no stories about this item and  asking  for a dialog. Oh, and apparently "... The provenance of the latest conspiracy theory isn't clear, but there are hints tying the faked documents to far-right circles in California."

Monday, June 30, 2014

Campaign finance redux


In a June 19th, 2008 oped this blogger suggested greatly raising the limits on potential campaign donations while massively strengthening disclosure and transparency with regard to the donations. Well, that's exactly where the law has been going as well, courtesy of a number of Supreme Court rulings...


"'... Earlier this spring, the Supreme Court delivered yet another blow to campaign finance regulation. In McCutcheon v. FEC, the Court invalidated the federal “aggregate limits” — or statutory restrictions on the amount any single individual can contribute to all federal candidates, parties, and committees combined. This decision was the latest in a string of decisions handed down by the Roberts Court removing restrictions on the flow of money into politics. 

McCutcheon is likely to drive significantly more money into the coffers of federal candidates, political parties, and other political committees. While the overall limit on the amount any individual could donate to such entities in a single election cycle was $123,200 prior to McCutcheon, wealthy individuals may now be able to contribute over $3.5 million in a single cycle... 

But less noted in the aftermath of McCutcheon was the fact that the Court went out of its way to affirm the constitutionality of campaign finance disclosure. The Chief Justice’s opinion asserted that disclosure “offers a particularly effective means of arming the voting public with information” and in addition provides “robust protections against corruption.” Indeed, every member of the current Court but Justice Thomas has now signaled strong approval of disclosure..."

The article then goes on to ask if current forms of disclosure are sufficient to meet the Chief Justice's assertion, before deciding that the current reporting/disclosure system need reform. They suggest a number of changes, including standardizing disclosure forms. As did this blogger back in 2002!

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Great quotes - voting


“Anybody who does not vote is giving the kiss of life to the terrorists. Those who do not come out are traitors, traitors, traitors who are selling out this country.”


Sunday, January 19, 2014

Random charts - child health

 
 
 
 
 


"In 2008, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) convened the Commission to Build a Healthier Americato help us find better ways to improve the health of our nation. In their search for solutions, the Commissioners found that there is much more to health than health care and that where we live, learn, work, and play profoundly influence our health..."

Their recommendations? 

"Recommendation 1: Make investing in America’s youngest children a high priority. This will require a significant shift in spending priorities and major new initiatives to ensure that families and communities build a strong foundation in the early years for a lifetime of good health. 

Recommendation 2: Fundamentally change how we revitalize neighborhoods, fully integrating health into community development. 

Recommendation 3: The nation must take a much more health-focused approach to health care financing and delivery. Broaden the mindset, mission, and incentives for health professionals and health care institutions beyond treating illness to helping people lead healthy lives."

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Random charts

Source: Women in the United States Congress: 1917-2009 and African American Members of the United States Congress: 1870 - 2009

16.8% women... and we insisted that Iraq set up a quota of 25% of seats in their parliament for women (something that would be totally unacceptable to many at home...)! From the report: "The percentage of voting female representation in Congress (16.8%) is slightly lower than averages of female representation in other countries. Women represent 18.4% of national legislative seats across the entire world. The Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), which maintains a database of worldwide female representation, ranks the United States 70th worldwide..."

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Random charts...

Source: Reform In an Age of Networked Campaigns. Charts showing donation size of various campaigns... The result of a "Joint Project of The Campaign Finance Institute, American Enterprise Institute and Brookings Institution" that argues for increased transparency (e.g. real-time and downloadable electronic disclosure on a single disclosure web site), as has this blogger. However, where we part company is that they recommend keeping most existing donation limits, and tweaking public funding mechanisms... while this blogger suggests drastically raising limits e.g. see the June 19th, 2008 entry, Campaign Finance.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Great quotes...


"... Coakley campaign noted concerns about "apathy" and failure of national Democrats to contribute early in December. Coakley campaign noted fundraising concerns throughout December and requested national Democratic help... DNC and other Dem organizations did not engage until the week before the election, much too late to aid Coakley operation... Because of the failure of national Democrats to support Coakley, she was forced to devote significant time to fundraising in December. She also released a variety of plans in December and had a public event nearly every day..." - Quotes from a memo put out by the Coakley campaign in the special election for the Senate in Massachusetts.

“... The candidate in this race and the campaign have been involved in the worst case of political malpractice in memory, and they aren't going to be able to spin themselves out of this with a memo full of lies...” - response from an unnamed 'senior Democratic Party official'

"... Look, we’re never in place of a campaign; a candidate has to run their own race. When the alarm bells went off, we sprung into action...” - Senator Menendez, DSCC Chair.

"... “She had a humanity deficit as a cold campaigner, but they didn’t try to warm her up — or, instead, define the race about big issues — and instead ended up with a referendum on likability...” - anonymous Massachusetts Democratic Party veteran.

"We're always in touch with our members. In the House, we don't have surprises when it comes to elections..." - House Speaker Pelosi snarky comment on the election.

And most of this back-and-forth sniping took place on election day with the polls still open!

Coakley adviser memo: D.C. Dems 'failed' Coakley
Finger-pointing begins for Democratic insiders
Dems trade friendly fire while waiting for election returns

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Random pictures...

Hamid Karzai to the French newspaper Le Figaro, "I will not be an American puppet."

Picture credit: Reuters/Adrees Latif

Ballots from the Afghan presidential elections. See "On a volé les élections aux Afghans"

Monday, September 7, 2009

Campaign (corporate) financing


On Wednesday the Supreme Court will be hearing arguments in a case, Citizens United v. the Federal Election Commission. Originally the case was about a conservative group suing the FEC so as not to have to disclose who financed a film they made and distributed last year. Since the film was "political" (i.e. sharply critical of Hillary Clinton), the question is re the requirements of the McCain Feingold Act.

However, rather than deciding the narrow case, the justices scheduled arguments for hearing "whether the law itself raised constitutional questions and it said it would reexamine a 1990 decision that said restricting corporations from spending money from their general treasuries to support or oppose political candidates did not violate constitutional guarantees of free speech." A number of people are concerned that the justices will take advantage of this opportunity to overturn the ban on direct corporate contributions to political campaigns.

Good! This blogger has long argued for a system that allows for unrestricted (more or less) contributions as long as there is concomitant disclosure (for example, see OPED20 from March of 2002, reprinted below). However, those who are in favor of campaign finance restrictions are up in arms over this anticipated "judicial activism" and are predicting disastrous consequences. They don't seem to realize that no matter what laws are passed, the moneyed interests and politicians will find a way to get together! "Political action committees", "Soft money", "527 groups", etc., sound familiar? How else did expenditures in the last presidential election cycle easily top $1 Billion for the first time (see graphs above)?

Justices to Review Campaign Finance Law Constraints
A test case for Roberts
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission at SCOTUSBlog
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission at Scotuswiki

OPED20 Campaign Finance 'Reform' (reprint from March 2002)

A hot topic in the news is campaign finance reform. The McCain-Feingold-Cochrane Campaign Finance Reform Bill - Senate S27, has passed the Senate, while the Shays-Meehan Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act - House HR 2356 - passed the House in February. Both these bills aim to regulate campaign financing by eliminating 'soft money' donations, and imposing other restrictions.

Since Shays-Meehan is slightly different from the Senate version discussions are back in the Senate. Senator Daschle has vowed to get it through the Senate by 3/25, Republicans (led by Mitch McConnell, R-KY) are resisting and threatening a filibuster.

Do a Google search

The passage of these bills was helped by revelations of Enron's massive political contributions, even though these paled in comparison to union contributions - In the 2001-2002 election cycle Enron ranked 33rd in soft money contributions, while in the 1999-2000 election cycle it ranked 15th in soft money contributions. (The AFSCME was on top in both of these cycles, the SEIU was once second and once third in the rankings, while the CWA was 6th in both cycles.)

Instead of fighting the "villain du jour" (today it is soft money, a few years ago it was Political Action Committees...) with restrictive and constitutionally questionable laws, we should ease restrictions on campaign financing but subject all financing to the light of day, a sort of Regulation FD for the political industry. The following is a suggested outline for a campaign reform system:

  • Raise hard money contribution limits to $20,000 per donor per phase of the election cycle (i.e. a donor could contribute up to $20,000 in the primary, and then $20,000 in the general election).
  • Cap soft money contributions at $100,000 per person or $500,000 per organization per phase of the election cycle. Thus the total amount of money an individual may contribute in aggregate would be $240,000 in a single year. There would be no exclusion for self-financed campaigns.
  • Every candidate would need to have a web site listing every contribution received with donor information. This would be the name and state of every individual donor, and the name of every organization (with industry classification and membership information, so that an organization can not be used as a front to avoid disclosing donors' names). Information for every contribution would have to be available on the web site within 24 hours of depositing donor checks. The web sites would be standardized so that they would be identical for all candidates, and would be indexed and searchable by amount, donor, state, organization, industry, etc. With immediate full disclosure, all sources of campaign funding would be fully transparent and available to interested individuals, the media, and the politicians' opponents (potentially to be used as a campaign issue...) To ensure compliance with the listing requirements, every infraction (no matter how small) would result in a $500,000 fine payable within 2 weeks. If the politician could not pay the fine within the deadline then he/she would be stricken from the poll.
  • All contributions to any post-election 'transition' activities and celebrations would be banned. While contributions to candidates can be considered 'at risk', contributions to the person who has won the election are more likely to be made to ensure 'access'. Being post-election this ban should avoid 'free speech' constitutionality problems.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

The 'theft' of the Iranian election


The big news of the moment is the aftermath of the elections in Iran, with the issue being the legitimacy of the incumbent, Ahmedinajad, being declared the victor (with 63% of the vote compared to runner-up Moussavi at 34% (both numbers rounded). Many have claimed that the election must have been rigged - ranging from those who believed that Ahmedinajad was going to win but only after going to a second round of voting, to those who believe that Moussavi won and the election result was reversed.

Reading the various accounts, articles, opinion pieces, etc., the level of superficiality in most is truly amazing. Here this Twitterer thought that with the Obama administration we were now beyond the days of dumbed down, one-dimensional analyses. Guess we need President/Professor Obama to give a speech to explain the subtleties....

OK, this Twitterer is not an Ahmedinajad fan and does not take the position that the Iranian elections were either free or fair. The very fact that the Guardian Council decided which candidates would be allowed to run was a way of 'fixing' the election. And subsequently, there were numerous irregularities and ways in which the thumb was put on the scales (ranging from official television and media coverage, to interference with various modes of communication e.g. SMS, to support from the Supreme Leader - both when chose to say something, and also when he chose not to react or take a position (e.g. see (here and here). However, thus far, what he objects to is that the majority of what is out there is profoundly unserious...

Let's look at some of what is advanced in favor of the proposition that the elections were massively fraudulent:
  • Many articles just assume the fraud, or content themselves to anecdotal stories e.g. quoting an Iranian as saying that he/she didn't vote for Ahmedinajad and didn't know anyone in town that would have voted for him either (yes, there are a number of articles like these with puerile thinking!). A variant of this quotes a journalist who walked around town asking voters who they planned on voting for and found no one who would reply 'Ahmedinajad'.
  • Very many articles just assumed that Moussavi was going to win, so that any other outcome would be prima facie proof of electoral fraud. Why would they make this assumption? This Twitterer is not sure, but generally articles of this type gushed in wonder at some or all of the following: Moussavi spoke to very large crowds (the fact that Ahmedinajad did as well apparently was inconsequential); the crowds were very enthusiastic, there was a lot of green (hmm, wasn't aware that green translated to certain electoral victory); there were lots of women and Moussavi's wife was especially prominently featured, (again, unsure why the fact that there were very many women at Ahmedinajad's rallies did not register, because they were more likely to be in chadors perhaps this somehow meant they didn't count); Moussavi's supporters were very youthful; they used Twitter, SMS, and texting a lot more than the incumbent's campaign; etc., etc. These articles seemed to view events through the lens of the recent U.S. elections (variations of the word 'Obamaesque' often appeared in these articles), and assume that what is good for us surely is good for the Iranians!
OK, having dutifully discarded these weighty articles, let us consider those that at least have a modicum of thought put into them:
  • One piece of evidence cited is the lopsided nature of the result - Ahmedinajad 63% to Moussavi 34%. an almost 2:1 margin. While many public opinion surveys were taken they varied wildly e.g. see this list on Wikipedia. However consider an opinion poll conducted by an American organization, the Terror Free Tomorrow Center for Public Opinion. Its survey prior to the election showed that among voters who expressed a preference, Ahmedinajad led Moussavi by a margin of 2.4:1. Granted, it showed a large number undecided, but this throws some cold water on the theory that a 2:1 margin must obviously have been "cooked."
  • Another set of arguments considers the geographical spread of voting patterns across the country. One criticism is that the official numbers show Ahmedinajad beating Moussavi (an Azeri) in Azeri regions, surely an issue. However, the same poll referenced above also showed a 2:1 edge in favor of Ahmedinajad among Azeri voters.
  • Put forward as evidence are also the claims of Moussavi and some of his supporters (e.g. Moussavi won; officials admitted as much to the Moussavi campaign before reversing course, etc. etc.). Even if one ignores the fact that these claims are tinged with self-interest, there are some realities that undermine their credibility. Among these is that the Moussavi campaign claimed victory even before the closure of the polls... Also that they claim a win with 65%, when prior to the election the hope was to hold Ahmedinajad to a second round. Their claim was also rather unspecific - they apparently "knew" based on their poll watchers (while simultaneously complaining that these folks were often not allowed in).
  • Other "evidence" cited comes from other parties with an interest (a.k.a axe to grind). Sometimes they let loose a whopper big enough to show that they have little to no credibility, and thus should be ignored... An example here might be National Council of Resistance of Iran leader Maryam Rajavi , who announced: "More than 85 percent of the 51.2 million eligible voters boycotted the mullahs' sham presidential election"., and claimed, laughably, that the real voter turnout was only 7.5 million!
  • Some of the narrative developed also does not seem to be consistent. For example, according to Juan Cole: "Here is how I would reconstruct the crime. As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory. The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose. They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts." Others make much of the bad blood between Moussavi and the Supreme Leader, and between Rafsanjani (supporting Moussavi) and the Supreme Leader. All of this seems overstated. Let us remember that the four candidates were vetted and approved to run by the Guardian Council (while hundreds of other potential candidates were eliminated). This fact, along with the fact that all four are stalwarts of the revolution (even though they have been classified in the press as "moderates" and "hard-liners", and their differences exaggerated) make these narratives unlikely. How likely is that the Supreme Leader would be so worried about the victory of a screened and 'approved' candidate, that sensing that the candidate might win he pulls a crude stunt that loses him all credibility? The more so, because even if Moussavi had won he could still have been easily 'neutered' just as "reformer" Khatami had been previously? (Side note, in his Salon article Cole is a little more circumspect - his blog's 'Stealing the Iranian election' becomes 'Ahmedinajad reelected under a cloud of fraud.')
  • Much has also been made re Rafsanjani's support of Moussavi. This actually may not have been a plus for Moussavi - Rafsanjani (though extremely well plugged in) is not very popular, and, if memory serves, Ahmedinajad crushed him the first time he was elected...
  • An observation regarding the announced counts was made that seemed credible to this Twitterer - that as the counts were announced "... a perfect linear relation between the votes received by the President and Mir Hossein Mousavi has been maintained..." and that apparently this was very suspicious. Alas, all this proved was that this Twitterer needs to brush up on his statistics, as this theory was debunked by Nate Silver...
So, bottom line, the semi-automatic acceptance of claims of electoral fraud by many is unsupported, and even those attempting to understand what has transpired (including this Twitterer) are ill-served by the pap that most of the media is serving up!

Karim Sadjadpour called it correctly in Foreign Policy when he wrote: "... Given the depth of polarization in Iran, the final results will likely be hotly contested by the losing side..." It is to be hoped that the violence will abate and that this will be ultimately resolved somehow...

Articles pre- & post-election:
Landslide or Fraud? The Debate Online Over Iran’s Election Results NYT's The Lede
Faulty Election Data & Statistical Evidence Does Not Prove That Iranian Election Was Rigged
Iran's Pres. Candidates Recognize the Web as a Go-To to Win
Reformists a Force in Looming Presidential Election
Another Coup for the Hardliners
The Supreme Leader's One Vote
Iranians vote in droves, Mousavi ally claims lead
Iran elections disputed
Rivals in Iran vote issue competing victory claims
Wishful thinking from Tehran
‘It’s a Coup d’Etat’
Reverberations as Door Slams on Hopes of Change
Iran:Riot in Tehran streets after election day"Death to the dictator!"
Ahmadinejad reelected under cloud of fraud & Stealing the Iranian Election
Iran elections: revolt as crowds protest at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's 'rigged' victory

Links to pictures:
Autnews
Flickr: mousavi1388's photostream

Pre-election backgrounders:
A Primer on Iran’s Presidential Election System
The List: Iran's Presidential Wannabes
Why Iran '09 Could Be Like Florida '00
Iranian Presidential Elections: Ghost at the Election Banquet
Iranian Presidents Have a Critical Role in Policymaking

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Lebanese Elections II

A few observations from the recent Lebanese parliamentary elections:

1. Unfortunately for those who like to put things and groups into easy 'buckets' (e.g. pro-western, pro-Syrian, Hezbollah-led, etc.), a chart which shows that the reality is much more complex than most of the facile depictions in the 'western' press...
2. How is it that there were "sweeps" in 23 of the 26 electoral districts??
3. The losers (M8 - 54.8%) actually got more total votes than the winners (M14 - 45.2%) per Aah, that damn popular vote.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Lebanese elections

The results (by electoral district, with corresponding sect). Note: the independents lumped in with M14... Available in a spreadsheet here.



(Apologies for any spelling errors or seat mis-allocations...)

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Iraq election analysis, hah!

Foreign Policy prints an analysis of the Iraqi provincial elections by Philip Zelikow, The new strategic situation in Iraq. His main conclusions? 1. "Maliki did well, but not as well as the U.S. press makes it seem." 2. "The big winner was fragmentation." Etc., etc. Hardly a revelation since this was obvious enough that this blogger pretty much made these same observations last week...