Random charts - DOD contracting

Source: Department of Defense’s Use of Contractors to Support Military Operations: Background, Analysis, and Issues for Congress (37-pg CRS PDF)

Random charts - hospital mergers

Source: How Hospital Mergers and Acquisitions Benefit Communities (12-pg PDF)

Random picture - AI watch?

The Smile, a project on Indiegogo...From the project:  "... The Smile is the world’s first smart phone you can wear like a bracelet! Not only that, but it can also read your mood. It will know if you’re stressed out or relaxing. It can monitor your diet and your health. It will inform you when you should get up and move or take a rest. It can suggest where you should spend a night out on the town. It can control how awake you are as well as your sleep stages and your dream time. And if you’re in trouble, the Smile will call for help. 

The Smile will automatically switch its display from a daylight optimized type to a night time optimized one. While you’re sleeping it won't let pesky telemarketers interrupt your sleep. . It will hold incoming calls, route them to voice mail or inform the caller to call back later. And unlike other smartphones, the smile doesn't need you to tell it how to reply to text messages. Your Facebook friends won't have any excuses for calling you while you sleep, because The Smile will set your status to 'sleeping' when you go to bed. 

The Smile is the AI that will become your indispensable assistant friend...'

Wonder how real this is...  October or December 2013 will tell!

Misc update - climate change

A new study Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change by a researcher at The University of Waterloo,Canada apparently demonstrates an "... almost perfect correlation between rising global surface temperatures and CFCs in the atmosphere..."; the study concludes that recent global warming has been caused by CFCs and not CO2; and apparently its model "... has superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional sunlight-driven ozone-depleting and CO2-warming models"

From the paper:

"For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO₂ concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5~7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1~2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O₃ hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O₃ hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models..."

So what is a layperson to make of this study? Believe it, which means believing that  global warming is/was anthropogenic but that perhaps we are not in as bad a shape as the CO2-centric approach would posit (i.e. this study indicates global temperatures will now go down rather than up as per the CO2-centric predictions...) and risk being castigated as a "denier"? Discard it?  Believe it, but argue that it represents just one factor, but still go with the "AGW is correct, is caused by carbon dioxide and global temperatures will continue to rise" outlook? Previous blog entries (links below) have wrestled with the issue of understanding the issue, this is another data point that would seem to go against the "consensus."

Previous blog entries related to climate:
Random charts - deforestation - Jan 8th, 2012
Misc update (climate) - Jan 29th, 2011
Climate denial - Jun 5th, 2010
More on climate - Jan 31st, 2010
Climate change and doubt - Jan 24th, 2010
Meet Dr. Rajendra Pachuri - Jan 23rd, 2010
We wuz wrong - Jan 23rd, 2010
Saving the day... - Dec 20th, 2009
Skimmed milk masquerades as cream - Dec 17, 2009

Misc update - Georgia

The Russia: Other Points of View blog had a recent entry on... Georgia. 'Georgian Reflections' has a nice overview of the history/situation (with many links).

Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update (Georgia) - May 18th, 2012
Misc update (Georgia) - Dec 28th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008

Consequences (MDET)

A recent article by Curtis Rooney, president of the Healthcare Supply Chain Association, took to task medical device manufacturers that have chosen to pass along the 2.3% Medical Device Excise Tax to their healthcare customers - Some medical device manufacturers not paying their share of health reform:

"As debate over repeal of the medical device excise tax continues on Capitol Hill, evidence has begun to emerge that some medical device manufacturers have chosen to pass the costs of the tax directly to American hospitals and healthcare providers, and ultimately to patients and taxpayers. For hospitals already delivering effective and affordable care on shrinking budgets, this is tantamount to being double-billed for healthcare reform.... 

... Hospitals are now reporting that, although some suppliers are behaving responsibly, other device manufacturers are billing hospitals directly to cover the costs associated with the medical device excise tax. Although there are more than 40 taxes found in the ACA, hospitals and other healthcare providers report that medical device suppliers are the only parties indicating that they plan to pass the tax on to their customers. That is not right.."

All true... The device manufacturers seem to be falling into three groups, those that do not attempt to pass this expense along (incidentally the plurality of the manufacturers that we deal with); those that seem confused or misinformed; and a smaller group that appear to be actively deceitful about the issue.

An example of a manufacturer from the second group (anonymized to protect the innocent):

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Here's an example from a manufacturer that would appear to fall into the third group (also anonymized). This one is so elaborate that it is difficult to attribute this to confusion or even willful ignorance, but would seem to be an attempt at active dishonesty. The letter references part of the legislation and corresponding IRS regulations, but for things that do not pertain to the hospital doing the purchasing! The hospital is directed to complete a "medical device exemption certificate."  Clearly the first three choices would not apply to a hospital almost 100% of the time (i.e. use for further manufacture, for resale, or for export) leaving "None of the above: Purchased item(s) subject to the 2.3% medical device excise tax" which would imply the purchaser is responsible. The only problem? This logic is applicable to the manufacturer and not to the purchaser!

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The medical device manufacturers are behaving responsibly for the most part. They, and their trade association, are actively trying to get this provision of the Affordable Care Act reversed. Majorities in both the Senate and House have indicated that they are in favor of a repeal, however specific enabling legislation has not been passed so the MDET remains in effect.

OK, so this blogger has no problem with these efforts by the device manufacturers, where he takes exception is with the legislators... Of course, this was not unexpected!

The September 29th, 2008 blog entry 'Quick reminder...' bemoaned Congress' penchant for specializing in ignorance, error, and immediate interest; in evincing a cavalier disregard of the intricacies of the matters they consider; and for 'specializing' in producing unintended consequences!

The follow-up September 29th, 2009 entry 'Unintended consequences' reprised this theme, provided a couple of examples, then said: "... Here's an easy prediction that's guaranteed to come about: one or two years after health care reform (or, rather, health insurance reform) gets passed, our Senators and Representatives will be complaining about some aspect of the delivery system and demanding corrective legislation, and that the issue(s) they are complaining about will be a direct (but unintended) consequence of the earlier reform... Another easy prediction: when this happens they will eschew all ownership and responsibility for the issue, and will seek to lay the blame elsewhere..."

Amen!

Random picture - "transportation culture"

Click to enlarge

Source: The Beetle Sphere: An Actual 1953 VW Beetle Formed into a Perfect Sphere by Ichwan Noor The artist's explanation...