Saving the day...

Once again on issues of major import, it is hard to tell from the reporting exactly what has happened. This blogger is referring here to the recent Copenhagen imbroglio... Was the outcome a "... meaningful and unprecedented agreement..." (per President Obama); a "... historic failure that will live in infamy..." (Greenpeace activist); a "reset" and possibly "... the beginning of a game changer in how the world looks at ending carbon pollution..." (Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress); or just the "... end of a long day, start of a long road..." (350.0rg founder)? Reactions were definitely mixed across the entire spectrum.

A certain amount of "spinning" is also going on, after all this did include a large number of political leaders from around the globe. For the U.S., the links below give the transcript of a briefing given by a "senior administration official" to reporters on the flight back to the United States. Presumably this is supposed to give an account of how President Obama 'saved the day' at Copenhagen... This blogger does not find it persuasive, in fact it reveals an incredible level of incoherence. One would expect that the President's attendance at this gathering of world leaders would be well planned, but one apparently would be wrong. For example:

• During the meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao the U.S. "... had given some transparency language to them..." to discuss. A follow-up question revealed that this was handed over at the meeting between Obama and Wen, a meeting at the end of the last day of the conference! Apparently the arrival of Secretary of State Clinton (also, incorrectly, portrayed as saving the day with her "$100 billion fund") did not result in any preparation for the President's arrival... it's not as if China's issues with "transparency" suddenly showed up when the President arrived!
• OK, so the above is concerning but not a huge deal. However, as the narrative by the "senior administration official" goes on, it looks like the most powerful man on the planet flew all the way to Copenhagen for an issue that might concern the fate of the entire planet, and did this all by the seat of his pants. "The President also says to staff, we should meet in a group of three with Lula of Brazil, Singh of India, and Zuma of South Africa..." Unfortunately it looked like this meeting would not occur, because "... Brazil tells us that they don't know if they can come because they want the Indians to come..." and "... we were told Singh was at the airport..." So, if this narrative is true, does this mean that the President didn't have a meeting scheduled with these worthies, and that he suddenly got the bright idea that this might be a good idea? And it looked like it wasn't going to be possible because some of them were already leaving the conference?
• Then, apparently, as they were going to the follow-up meeting with Wen they found him with the three (Brazil's Lula, India's Singh, and South Africa's Zuma)!! Hmm. so perhaps credit for saving the conference should go to Wen and not Obama, since according to the "senior administration official" it was Wen that managed to pull together the group after the U.S, had failed to do so!

OK, so this all sounds incredibly amateurish, even putting aside the insinuations that the others might have been engaged in some sort of secret meeting, that the "at the airport" story was possibly a ploy, etc. The entire narrative doesn't make much sense, from the small details (the seating) to the larger narrative (above). Even the silly "seating" story makes no sense! Although, supposedly, "... there aren't any seats, right, I mean, I think if you've seen some of the pictures, there were basically no chairs..." it turns out that "... the President says, "No, no, don't worry, I'm going to go sit by my friend Lula," and says, "Hey, Lula." Walks over, moves a chair, sits down next to Lula. The Secretary of State sits down next to him..." So, if no chairs where were they sitting? On the floor? That would make a good picture, the President and Secretary of State both sitting cross-legged on the floor!

This blogger is really not sure what to make of this entire narrative. Even if you believe every word, does the unnamed "senior administration official" somehow feel that this reflects positively on the President? Presumably the intent is to portray the President as having pulled a rabbit out of his hat; however, this blogger would argue that it is more evidence of ineptness than of brilliant maneuvering! And if it's not an exact rendering of what happened, why would they come up with such a silly story?

White House tells amazing inside story of how the Copenhagen Accord was reached
Inside details on Obama's climate change meeting with Wen, Lula, Singh and Zuma

Drivel...

Source: CBO Economic & Budget Issue Brief

Upper Mismanagement: Why can't Americans make things? Two words: business school

Hmm, to read this article U.S. manufacturing is in a parlous state, as evidenced by the fact that it "... has shed almost one-third of its manpower over the last eight years..." Apparently this is due to a dearth of good managerial talent, since starting in 1965 business school graduates increasingly opted for the consulting and financial industries; fewer managers came from production backgrounds; and business schools tended to "reflect and reinforce" these trends. Also, business schools started to get better students, but apparently this was a bad thing because they were "over-achievers" and "... motivated primarily by salary rather than some lifelong ambition to run a steel mill..."

Towards the end, the article generously opines that "... it would be ludicrous to suggest that simply changing the culture of business schools would single-handedly revive U.S. manufacturing..." Ludicrous... an excellent word... which perhaps should also be applied to the title and the entire article, it's thesis as well as its ending i.e. "... it’s hard to believe that American manufacturing has a chance of recovering unless business schools start producing people who can run industrial companies, not just buy and sell their assets..."

What a load of drivel. The underlying contention appears to be that the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment is symptomatic of a decline in manufacturing is risible. U.S. manufacturing output accounts for about a quarter of global manufacturing output. In 2009 it is valued at around $2.7 trillion, which would be equivalent to the sixth largest economy in the world.

Source: Manufacturing output as a percent of world manufacturing output, 2007

The decrease in manufacturing employment has many causes. Chief among them is the fact that manufacturing productivity has soared, so that manufacturing output has greatly increased even while manufacturing employment has simultaneously decreased (see graphs above). Other reasons include the effects of foreign competition, the declining share of consumer spending dedicated to manufactured goods, and the increasing use of temporary, part-time workers, and contracted labor. And the trend of reductions in manufacturing employment has occurred across the world... Robert Reich's 'The Future of Manufacturing, GM, and American Workers' illustrates this point: "... Economists at Alliance Capital Management took a look at employment trends in twenty large economies and found that between 1995 and 2002--before the asset bubble and subsequent bust--twenty-two million manufacturing jobs disappeared. The United States wasn't even the biggest loser. We lost about 11% of our manufacturing jobs in that period, but the Japanese lost 16% of theirs. Even developing nations lost factory jobs: Brazil suffered a 20% decline, and China had a 15% drop..."

Source

The article also uses the example of agriculture to point out the frivolity of gauging the health of an industry by its historical employment trends, "... In this, manufacturing is following the same trend as agriculture. A century ago, almost 30% of adult Americans worked on a farm. Nowadays, fewer than 5% do. That doesn't mean the U.S. failed at agriculture. Quite the opposite. American agriculture is a huge success story..." Should the U.S. government be supporting a return to the farm? Well then why should it attempt to "revive" manufacturing employment?

OK, in sum, a silly article, embellished with an equally silly and superficial analysis...

What Accounts for the Decline in Manufacturing Employment? CBO

Random picture

Source: The 50 Most Stunning Wall Murals From Around The World

Quick update

The October 29th, 2008 blog entry, Science and side effects, related that the use of the drug diclofenac in livestock was responsible for almost wiping out the Indian vulture population, with attendant ill effects... Well, in 2006 diclofenac was banned and the "safe" drug ketoprofen started to be used instead.

Fast forward to today. It turns out that ketoprofen is also fatal to the vultures, and has also been killing them! Now they're moving on to using meloxicam...

By his own words...

In Uganda a first-term parliamentarian has introduced a bill to penalize homosexuality. It would make the act of homosexuality a felony punishable by seven years in prison; and the act of "aggravated" homosexuality punishable by life imprisonment. (Ed note: In Uganda homosexuality is already illegal). The bill also includes penalties for not reporting (a fine and up to three years imprisonment); those who engage in same-sex marriage are imprisoned for life; while anyone who "aids and abets" homosexuality is liable for seven years....

Condemnation, rightly, has poured in from around the world... In defense of himself and his bill Bahati has said at various times:

"You are either anti-homosexual, or you're for homosexuals, because there's no middle point. Anybody who does not believe that homosexuality is a crime is a sympathizer..."

"The Anti-Homosexuality Bill is a nice piece of legislation. It is a consolidation of values of Ugandans and the country at large. It aims at holding the integrity of Ugandans high in the sky... The family is the epitome of creation. And anything that deviates from our family values is evil, unacceptable. This Bill is focusing on ways through which Uganda can keep her family values safe and sound... The divine role of man is that of procreation, a far cry from this mentality that man and man can live in the same house as husband and wife, or a woman marrying a fellow woman... Combating homosexuality is not easy. There is massive recruitment in schools—mostly single-sex schools...," and "... supporting the cause of this Bill will provide Uganda as a country an opportunity to provide leadership in this area of safeguarding the traditional family..."

What a piece of work!

Bill No 18 The Antihomosexuality Bill (text and link to original PDF)
David Bahati - Wikipedia
David Bahati - Ugandan Parliament page
Taboos Silence Opponents Of Uganda Anti-Gay Bill
David Bahati: Homosexuality is not a human right
Uganda MP Bahati defends gay-sex 'death penalty' bill

Random charts...

Charts with some information on the U.S. use of 'contractors' in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many do not realize that 'contractors' make up the majority of the "workforce" in Iraq/Afghanistan. Addition information and charts at the source, a CRS report "Department of Defense Contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan: Backgroiund and Analysis."

Update...

The May 20th, 2008 blog entry, 'Dabba dabba... done,' referenced the amazing work done by the Mumbai dabbawallas, who reunite over two hundred thousand workers with their home-cooked lunches every day. The article Mumbai Markings Enhance Service Design' and 'Decoding the Dabbawalla Iconography' help explain how this gets done with better than six sigma accuracy despite the low-literacy or illiteracy of the workers involved...