Saturday, January 14, 2012

Random charts - demogrqaphic trends

Source: Dusk, Dawn, and High Noon: Demographic Trends Forecast Next Phases for China, India, and the United States.

A look at "... the demographic futures and related economic prospects facing China, India, and the United States over the next several decades..." With the caveat that "... demographics are not destiny...", this study examines the demographics changes/trends through 2050, and from them derives some possibilities:
  • "... Alone among the world’s large affluent nations, the United States will see modest increases in its working-age population through 2050; meanwhile, the working-age populations of Europe and Japan are projected to fall steeply through 2050. These demographic and economic trends alone may mean the United States will be the predominant global power for at least the next half-century. If anything, the United States could become even more dominant in the alliances it leads..."
  • "... Right now, as of 2012, China is entering an era in which its rapidly aging population could constrain its economic growth. India, in contrast, will enjoy a substantial demographic advantage until around 2030, when the ratio of working-age Indians to dependents will likely be at its highest..."
Read the RAND article for much more...

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