Random tweets - Jumblatt

Source: Lebanon mourns Oscar, beloved dog of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt

Random chart - Lebanon

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Source: Lebanon Ethnic Composition

Great quotes - Lebanon

Image credit: Worried Lebanese

"... The tragedy of Lebanon remains that most of these theories could be plausible, but we will have to wait for the evidence and the investigation to provide more clarity on the possible perpetrators..."

- Rami G. Khoury,  Lebanese journalist, on who might be responsible for the car bomb that assassinated Mohammed Shatah in December...

Some previous blog entries referencing Lebanon:
Great quote - more Walid Beg - Oct 15th, 2013
Great quotes - Walid Beg encore -  Mar 17th, 2013
Random charts - Aug 18th, 2011
Brief update III (Finally?) -  July 9th, 2011
No surprise... - April 4th, 2011
Misc update VI - Feb 14th, 2011
Look at Lebanon - Jan 28th, 2011
Random picture - Jan 25th, 2011
Random chart - Jan 20th, 2011
Great quotes - Dec 11th, 2010
Great quotes - Nov 27th, 2010
Coming to a head - Nov 27th, 2010
Great quotes - Oct 10th, 2010
Random charts - Sep 23rd, 2010
Random picture - Aug 4th, 2010
Great quotes - Jan 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jul 29th, 2010
Such concern - Jul 24th, 2009
Lebanese elections II - Jun 9th, 2009
Lebanese elections - Jun 8th, 2009
Four years on... - February 16th, 2009
Quotes - Jan 21st, 2009
UNIIIC progress (?!) - December 18th, 2008
Great quotes... - December 10th, 2008
Damned if you do... - November 18th, 2008
Lebanon - good grief - November 11th, 2008
Taking it back - October 28th, 2008
Profile - Oct 20th, 2008
Litmus test quiz - September 2nd, 2008
Everything takes more time... - August 12th, 2008
At Last (Lebanon)! - July 11th, 2008
Self-examination - profound & shallow - July 7th, 2008
Some poll indicators - June 21st, 2008
Make that President Sleiman - May 25th, 2008
Le Sursis - May 21st, 2008
Lebanon - Doha noise - May 20th, 2008
Bad omen... good omen... - May 11th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon III - May 6th, 2008
Headed back down the toilet? - May 6th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon II - May 2nd, 2008
Needed in Lebanon - April 16th, 2008
Misc updates #3 - April 4th, 2008
Rogue's Gallery II - March 26th, 2008
A Rogue's Gallery - March 2nd, 2008
Benazir Bhutto follow-up... - Feb 9th, 2008

Great quote - more Walid Beg

"Il faut être psychiatre pour comprendre que c'est un menteur pathologique... On a affaire à un psychopathe doté d'une double personnalité, effroyablement menteur et brutal. J'ai découvert quelqu'un de machiavélique..."

- Walid Jumblatt on Bashar el-Assad.

Well, he's come full circle! Back to: "tyrant of Damascus, you ape unknown to nature, you snake from which even the snakes have fled, you whale vomited by the ocean, you wild desert beast, you creature that is only half-man, you Israeli product at the expense of the corpses of the South Lebanese, you liar and arch-killer in Iraq, you criminal blood-shedder in Syria and Lebanon”

Some previous Walid Beg quotes:
Great quotes - Walid Beg encore - Mar 27th, 2013
Great quotes -  Nov 27th, 2010
Great quotes - Oct 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jan 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jul 29th, 2009
Taking it back... - Oct 28th, 2008

Great quotes - Walid Beg encore

“I am with al-Nusra Front against the Syrian regime – the Syrian people have the right to deal with the devil, with the exception of Israel, to confront the regime.”

- Walid Jumblatt's latest.

Some previous Walid Beg quotes:
Great quotes -  Nov 27th, 2010
Great quotes - Oct 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jan 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jul 29th, 2009
Taking it back... - Oct 28th, 2008

Random charts

Source: Special Tribunal for Lebanon Indictment

Brief update III (Finally?)

The May 6th, 2011 blog entry, Interminable, looked at the latest happenings at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and wondered when the pre-trial judge, Daniel Fransen, would act on the indictments filed by the Prosecutor Daniel A Bellemare.

Well, amazingly enough, four indictments were issued June 30th, 2011, and their names leaked almost immediately. Four Hezbollah members. Reactions were swift, including from Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah... The members of the newly-formed Lebanese government also were forced to respond to the indictments as their opponents tried to pin them down with respect to arrests of the suspects, support for the STL, etc.

However, much remains to unfold and it is possible that there will be many more twists and turns along the road before this gets wrapped up, bringing to mind a Winston Churchill quote from November of 1942, "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning..."

STL Indicts Four Suspects in Hariri Murder
Special Tribunal for Lebanon indictment is here: Observations
Why Hezbollah Had a Really Bad Week
Robert Fisk: UN blames Hezbollah for Hariri bomb murder
Lebanon Fears Crisis with Issue of Arrest Warrants
Nasrallah Comments on the STL Indictments
Lebanese Ministerial Statement - see article 14
The Cabinet and the STL

Interminable...

Click to enlarge
Graphic courtesy of Tosk59

Interminable:
- adjective
1. (apparently) incapable of being terminated; unending: e.g. an interminable job
2. monotonously or annoyingly protracted or continued; unceasing; incessant: e.g. I can't stand that interminable clatter.
3. (apparently) having no limits: e.g. an interminable desert

If ever there was a process that would seem to fit the definition, it has to be the investigation and subsequent proceedings designed to bring to justice those responsible for the assassination of Rafic Hariri... Lest we forget, the assassination happened on the 14th of February, 2005.

It appeared that progress was being made when the STL-TSL Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare filed an indictment with the pre-trial Judge Daniel Fransen in January of this year. At that time Fransen had to plow through the indictment and all the supporting materials and evidence, and then:

• request additional material
• confirm one or more counts
• dismiss one or more counts (whereupon the Prosecutor could file an amended or new indictment)
  

The pre-trial judge must confirm an indictment if he believes a prima facie case has been established. If this happens then the case will proceed to trial. The confirmed indictment may be made public, or it may be kept confidential for a while longer in order to issue arrest warrants, notify the accused, etc. Note that if indictments are dismissed they are not ever made public....

OK, so the pre-trial Judge has no time limit on his perusal of the indictment and when he makes his decision. Also, as long as the indictment has not been confirmed the Prosecutor can amend the indictment at any time. Thus Bellemare expanded the indictment March 11th, 2011, and again today - "... The Prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Daniel A. Bellemare, filed today an amended indictment, replacing the indictment of 11 March 2011, to include substantive new elements unavailable until recently. The Prosecutor does not intend to make further amendments to the indictment, unless ordered to do so by the Pre-Trial Judge. Other indictments could, however, be filed in the future if warranted by the evidence. The amendment of an indictment or the filing of new indictments is and will continue to be guided solely by the evidence uncovered by the ongoing investigation”, the Prosecutor stated.."

Given this it looks like Fransen is going to take even longer to make his determination! Let's hope that 'exceedingly slow' will be accompanied by 'exceedingly fine.'

Some previous blog entries referencing Lebanon:
No surprise... - April 4th, 2011
Misc update VI - Feb 14th, 2011
Look at Lebanon - Jan 28th, 2011
Random picture - Jan 25th, 2011
Random chart - Jan 20th, 2011
Great quotes - Dec 11th, 2010
Great quotes - Nov 27th, 2010
Coming to a head - Nov 27th, 2010
Great quotes - Oct 10th, 2010
Random charts - Sep 23rd, 2010
Random picture - Aug 4th, 2010
Great quotes - Jan 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jul 29th, 2010
Such concern - Jul 24th, 2009
Lebanese elections II - Jun 9th, 2009
Lebanese elections - Jun 8th, 2009
Four years on... - February 16th, 2009
Quotes - Jan 21st, 2009
UNIIIC progress (?!) - December 18th, 2008
Great quotes... - December 10th, 2008
Damned if you do... - November 18th, 2008
Lebanon - good grief - November 11th, 2008
Taking it back - October 28th, 2008
Profile - Oct 20th, 2008
Litmus test quiz - September 2nd, 2008
Everything takes more time... - August 12th, 2008
At Last (Lebanon)! - July 11th, 2008
Self-examination - profound & shallow - July 7th, 2008
Some poll indicators - June 21st, 2008
Make that President Sleiman - May 25th, 2008
Le Sursis - May 21st, 2008
Lebanon - Doha noise - May 20th, 2008
Bad omen... good omen... - May 11th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon III - May 6th, 2008
Headed back down the toilet? - May 6th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon II - May 2nd, 2008
Needed in Lebanon - April 16th, 2008
Misc updates #3 - April 4th, 2008
Rogue's Gallery II - March 26th, 2008
A Rogue's Gallery - March 2nd, 2008
Benazir Bhutto follow-up... - Feb 9th, 2008

As the saying goes, "The wheels of justice grind exceeding slow, but they grind exceedingly fine." Or, apparently more correctly, "Though the mills of God grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding small; Though with patience He stands waiting, with exactness grinds He all."

No surprise

Miqati Says he Hasn't Yet Reached Cabinet Formation Stage Well, no big surprise here...

Misc update VI

The January 28th, 2011 blog entry 'Look at Lebanon' suggested that "... (M8)... put forward a PM candidate to prove it (Ed note: that they have a parliamentary majority), but will NOT form a govt. They will spend the next several weeks and months talking a lot about a unity government, but making it as difficult for Hariri as possible, and counting on him to not go along with it. However, they will refrain from setting up a M8-only version. Essentially, the name of the game *right now* is to temporize and buy time, pending the STL indictments being made public (and then seeing how it pans out). Rather than a M14 govt backing the STL, or a M8 govt against the STL (but not credible), best for them right now would be NO government. Clearly this is not tenable for the long haul, but HA is in a tough spot and buying time is the best they can do *right now*…"

In the almost three weeks since there have been multiple meetings, talks, more meetings, but no proposed cabinet. And now, "well informed diplomatic sources" say that "... Cabinet formation has been postponed until after the indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is issued..." Hmm. no shock here! However, if this truly was 'pushed' by the EU, then that was a silly move on their part, and they were well and truly snookered by Hezbollah and M8!

Some previous blog entries referencing Lebanon:
Look at Lebanon - Jan 28th, 2011
Random picture - Jan 25th, 2011
Random chart - Jan 20th, 2011
Great quotes - Dec 11th, 2010
Great quotes - Nov 27th, 2010
Coming to a head - Nov 27th, 2010
Great quotes - Oct 10th, 2010
Random charts - Sep 23rd, 2010
Random picture - Aug 4th, 2010
Great quotes - Jan 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jul 29th, 2010
Such concern - Jul 24th, 2009
Lebanese elections II - Jun 9th, 2009
Lebanese elections - Jun 8th, 2009
Four years on... - February 16th, 2009
Quotes - Jan 21st, 2009
UNIIIC progress (?!) - December 18th, 2008
Great quotes... - December 10th, 2008
Damned if you do... - November 18th, 2008
Lebanon - good grief - November 11th, 2008
Taking it back - October 28th, 2008
Profile - Oct 20th, 2008
Litmus test quiz - September 2nd, 2008
Everything takes more time... - August 12th, 2008
At Last (Lebanon)! - July 11th, 2008
Self-examination - profound & shallow - July 7th, 2008
Some poll indicators - June 21st, 2008
Make that President Sleiman - May 25th, 2008
Le Sursis - May 21st, 2008
Lebanon - Doha noise - May 20th, 2008
Bad omen... good omen... - May 11th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon III - May 6th, 2008
Headed back down the toilet? - May 6th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon II - May 2nd, 2008
Needed in Lebanon - April 16th, 2008
Misc updates #3 - April 4th, 2008
Rogue's Gallery II - March 26th, 2008
A Rogue's Gallery - March 2nd, 2008
Benazir Bhutto follow-up... - Feb 9th, 2008

Great quotes

LE FIGARO. - Que répondez-vous à ceux qui vous présentent comme l'homme du Hezbollah ?

Nagib MIKATI. - Sur les 68 députés qui m'ont apporté leurs voix, une dizaine seulement appartiennent au Hezbollah. J'ai été appuyé par des députés de toutes les confessions et de toutes les composantes de l'échiquier libanais. Avant de me soutenir, le Hezbollah m'a certes demandé des engagements, mais j'ai répondu que je ne pouvais pas les assurer. Je ne me suis engagé qu'à une chose envers lui : protéger la résistance. Car la préservation des armes dirigées vers Israël est un point de convergence entre tous les Libanais.

Le Hezbollah a pourtant provoqué la chute de votre prédécesseur, Saad Hariri, à cause d'un désaccord sur le Tribunal spécial chargé d'élucider l'assassinat de Rafic Hariri en 2005. Pourquoi n'aurait-il pas les mêmes exigences envers vous ?

Personne n'a la possibilité de toucher à la résolution 1757 instituant le Tribunal spécial, car il s'agit d'une décision internationale. En revanche, les Libanais peuvent débattre du moyen de gérer les conséquences de cette décision pour le pays. Ma position à ce sujet est claire : à moins que les Libanais ne s'accordent à le revoir, à l'unanimité et avec un soutien arabe, le gouvernement reste engagé à respecter le protocole qui le lie aux Nations unies à propos du Tribunal. C'est cette formule conciliatoire que je souhaite faire prévaloir.

Comment expliquez-vous dans ce cas la confiance que vous semblez inspirer au Hezbollah ?

C'est à lui qu'il faut adresser cette question. Peut-être mon histoire plaide-t-elle en ma faveur, mes positions nationales, mon souci de neutralité, en particulier depuis 2005 : pendant toute la période difficile qu'a traversée le Liban, j'ai toujours opté pour des positions centristes. En tout cas, je ne veux être l'otage d'aucun camp.

Lire la suite...

LE FIGARO. - What do you say to those who consider you Hezbollah's man?

Nagib Mikati. - Of the 68 MPs who have given me their vote, only ten belong to Hezbollah. I was supported by members of all faiths and all parts of the Lebanese scene (chess board). Before supporting me, Hezbollah certainly asked me for commitments, but I said I could not assure them. I am committed to do only one thing for them: protect the resistance. Because the preservation of weapons directed at Israel is a point of agreement among all Lebanese.

Yet Hezbollah caused the downfall of your predecessor, Saad Hariri, due to a disagreement over the Special Court set up to clarify the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005. Why would they not have the same requirements of you?

Nobody can touch Resolution 1757 establishing the Special Court, as it is the result of an international decision. However, the Lebanese can discuss ways to manage the consequences of this decision for the country. My position on this is clear: unless the Lebanese do not agree with the review, unanimously and with Arab support, the government remains committed to the Protocol which binds us to the UN concerning the Tribunal. It is this conciliatory formula that I want to make prevail.

In this case how do you explain the confidence you seem to inspire in Hezbollah?

You need to address this issue to them. Perhaps my story pleads in my favor, my national positions, my concern for neutrality, in particular since 2005; throughout the difficult period has crossed the Lebanon I have always opted for centrist positions. In any case, I do not want to be hostage to any camp...."

Read the remainder...

Random picture

Source: Don’t hate Jumblatt, hate the game

Random chart

Source: Qifa Nabki: Who Will Be Lebanon’s Next Prime Minister: Doing the Parliamentary Math Go on over for a bigger (PDF) version of the chart, and for on-point analysis...

Great quotes

"I’ve had better cooperation from Syria than some of the EU countries."

- Serge Brammertz, 2006

Wikileaks: Bellemare “has no case” against Syria

"... In a 2006 discussion with former US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, UNIIIC Commissioner Serge Brammertz is said to have lamented burdensome UN processes which were hindering his investigation.

.....

Turning to the issue of international cooperation with investigator’s requests, Brammertz alleged that France – a long-time vocal supporter of the probe into Hariri’s death – had been particularly “flatly non-cooperative.”

“After Brammertz asked this country’s ambassador in Lebanon for access to interview a suspect in that country’s territory, the ambassador came back with all kinds of conditions about how the interview would take place, how the testimony could or could not be used, in order to comply with EU standards. Brammertz said, ‘I told him, if you were Syria, I would write in my report that you refused to cooperate with the investigation. He was shocked, of course, but it’s true. I’ve had better cooperation from Syria than some of the EU countries.’”

Great quotes

"Whoever technically killed Rafik Hariri, those really responsible were [French President Jacques] Chirac and [US President George W] Bush, who forced him to accept 1559"
- Our go-to guy for great quotes, Walid Jumblatt, see 'Lebanon tense as fingers point over Hariri killing'

Coming to a head?

Tick, tock. Tick, tock... The days and months continue to roll by since the assassination of Rafik Hariri (February 14th, 2005), and the official investigation plods on... Recently, Canadian broadcaster CBC published a 4-part "investigation", "Who Killed Lebanon's Rafik Hariri?" (subtitled "Getting Away with Murder.") The bottom line? Hezbollah, albeit with help...

OK, so let's stipulate that all of this could be true, although there is a fair amount of skepticism out there... For example, the Qifa Nabki web site takes issue with the CBC "investigation's" central thesis that the UNIIIC ignored telecom information for the first several years (note: his criticism provides copious references to and excerpts from UNIIIC reports by Mehlis and Brammertz which reference telecommunications analysis work that the commission had done).

This blogger finds the very first two sentences of the CBC article simply astounding! Quote, "It wasn't until late 2007 that the awkwardly titled UN International Independent Investigation Commission actually got around to some serious investigating. By then three years had passed since the spectacular murder of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik Hariri." Huh? Is this actually possible? No real investigating for the first three years? While the evidence was "fresh"? While suspects were actually incarcerated and in jail (e.g. "the four generals" - head of general security Maj. Gen. Jamil al Sayyed, Ali al-Hajj, the former police director general, army intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Raymond Azar and the head of the Presidential Guard Brigade, Brig. Gen. Mustafa Hamdan)? Wouldn't this be in contravention of the "guiding principles" of the STL e.g. "to take account of the most stringent requirements for the protection of human rights"(see here), and wouldn't this be a case of providing ammunition to those already looking for opportunities to criticize the UNIIIC and to call for its disbanding?

To this blogger if the CBC contention is accurate then the very premise and existence of the UNIIIC is problematic, while if the CBC contention is inaccurate it does not augur well for the reliability of the rest of the "investigation."

Next, the entire "Captain Wissam Eid had figured it all out but the UNIIIC lost/misplaced his findings" story and the associated time line are also rather bizarre... So, the narrative is that in 2005/2006 Eid had figured out the "red network" and the "networks behind the networks"... He had even received a confirmation direct from Hezbollah, before filing his report with the UNIIIC "in the first months of 2006." Subsequently his boss was targeted "as if to underscore" that he should back off (curiously enough that was in September 2006... one would think that Hezbollah would have done this before he turned in the incriminating report and not after "he had moved on!"). Then Hezbollah waited for a year and a half, and after Eid's work was "found" and he met with UNIIIC investigators, then they kill him too... Again, wouldn't it have been better to kill him a. before he turned in his report, or failing that, b. after he turned in his report, along with having report expunged by one of their operatives (since Hezbollah is supposed to have "infiltrated the commission.")

And actually, what exactly is the relevance of the entire Wissam Eid story to the subject of proving Hezbollah's responsibility (or not) for the Hariri murder, other than from a "human interest" angle? After all, if the specialists from FTS have analyzed all the telecommunications data and have mapped out all the connections, it does seem rather moot...

Additionally, some of the connections are not exactly clear... How exactly did the networks connect "elliptically" with Hezbollah's Great Prophet Hospital, and how did the networks communicate "indirectly" with the pink phones?

Oh yeah, and there appears to be very little in this CBC "investigation" that is new, much of this information was published by Der Spiegel back in May of 2009, see 'Breakthrough in Tribunal Investigation: New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder'

The bottom line? We'll have to wait for the STL's indictments to know more, and even so those are sure not to be the last word!!

CBC Investigation: Who killed Lebanon's Rafik Hariri?
STL response: Hariri Investigation will not be Deterred by Recent Criticism
Lebanon tense as fingers point over Hariri killing
Trials and tribulations for Mr. Bellemare

Some previous blog entries referencing Lebanon:
Great quotes - Oct 10th, 2010
Random charts - Sep 23rd, 2010
Random picture - Aug 4th, 2010
Great quotes - Jan 10th, 2010
Great quotes - Jul 29th, 2010
Such concern - Jul 24th, 2009
Lebanese elections II - Jun 9th, 2009
Lebanese elections - Jun 8th, 2009
Four years on... - February 16th, 2009
Quotes - Jan 21st, 2009
UNIIIC progress (?!) - December 18th, 2008
Great quotes... - December 10th, 2008
Damned if you do... - November 18th, 2008
Lebanon - good grief - November 11th, 2008
Taking it back - October 28th, 2008
Profile - Oct 20th, 2008
Litmus test quiz - September 2nd, 2008
Everything takes more time... - August 12th, 2008
At Last (Lebanon)! - July 11th, 2008
Self-examination - profound & shallow - July 7th, 2008
Some poll indicators - June 21st, 2008
Make that President Sleiman - May 25th, 2008
Le Sursis - May 21st, 2008
Lebanon - Doha noise - May 20th, 2008
Bad omen... good omen... - May 11th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon III - May 6th, 2008
Headed back down the toilet? - May 6th, 2008
Needed in Lebanon II - May 2nd, 2008
Needed in Lebanon - April 16th, 2008
Misc updates #3 - April 4th, 2008
Rogue's Gallery II - March 26th, 2008
A Rogue's Gallery - March 2nd, 2008
Benazir Bhutto follow-up... - Feb 9th, 2008

Great quotes

"Lorsque tout devient monnayable en lires ou en dollars, lorsqu'il y a un prix pour le devoir de la fonction, un prix pour traiter avec les services de l'État, un prix pour les tâches du gouvernement, un prix pour mettre à exécution les projets publics, un prix pour voter aux élections parlementaires, un prix pour ce qu'on dit ou écrit dans les mass médias, un prix pour légiférer certaines choses, un prix pour certaines sentences judiciaires, lorsque tout a un prix, nous craignons que la corruption ne soit devenue dans notre vie publique un élément appartenant au noyau même de la culture sociale, et que la société soit donc devenue la victime de ce que nous appelons la culture de la corruption"
- Selim Al Hoss, ex-prime minister, speaking about corruption in Lebanon.

Great quotes

“Somewhere in the West, some masterminds have planned to drown Muslims in total chaos to keep them busy and divert their attention from the main cause – Palestine. When everyone gets entangled in killing, slaughters and discord, the Israelis become satisfied”
- Walid Jumblatt, see here.

Random charts

Source: If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and Its Allies

Random picture

Source: Israel-Lebanon Conflict: Lots of Questions, Few Answers in Border Skirmish