Friday, January 31, 2020
Saturday, January 19, 2019
Random charts - border wall
Monday, January 20, 2014
Great quotes - dual govt?
Saturday, January 18, 2014
What was said (and what not)
Friday, January 17th President Obama finally made a speech in reaction to all the recent disclosures about NSA surveillance, etc. Full of soaring rhetoric... masking the sad reality. The blog emptywheel takes a closer look:
"Relationships with foreign intelligence services have expanded, and our capacity to repel cyber-attacks has been strengthened. Taken together, these efforts have prevented multiple attacks and saved innocent lives – not just here in the United States, but around the globe as well. And yet, in our rush to respond to very real and novel threats, the risks of government overreach – the possibility that we lose some of our core liberties in pursuit of security – became more pronounced. We saw, in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, our government engaged in enhanced interrogation techniques that contradicted our values."
"Through a combination of action by the courts, increased congressional oversight, and adjustments by the previous Administration, some of the worst excesses that emerged after 9/11 were curbed by the time I took office."
Sunday, July 7, 2013
The downside... (updated)
... and of course there's the hit to your connection speed!
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Technology hype - update

Well, apparently the folks over at the Singularity Hub also thought the reports a bit hyped, and so they checked up on it. See 'Brazilian “RoboCop” Security Goggles Over-Hyped, We’ve Got the Real Facts for the real scoop (note: the 12 miles and 400 faces a second don't pass the smell test...)
Monday, November 15, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Deference?

These are "... organizations with systems in place that are exceptionally consistent in accomplishing their goals and avoiding potentially catastrophic errors. The industries first to embrace HRO concepts were those in which past failures had led to catastrophic consequences: airplane crashes, nuclear reactor meltdowns, and other such disasters. These industries found it essential to identify weak danger signals and to respond to these signals strongly so that system functioning could be maintained and disasters could be avoided..." (source).
Research has identified five main characteristics of HROs, that they use to ensure "mindfulness" and to avoid failures (source):
- A preoccupation with failure
- Reluctance to simplify interpretations
- Sensitivity to operations
- Commitment to resilience
- Deference to expertise
Some links:
Wikipedia: high reliability organization
The San Bernadino Group: High Reliability Organizing
5 Habits of Highly Reliable Organizations
Must accidents happen? Lessons from high-reliability organizations
Transforming Hospitals Into High Reliability Organizations
The Better the Team, The Safer the World: Golden rules of group interaction in high risk environments
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Random charts


Source: Smudge Attacks on Smartphone Touch Screens. Interesting... "... Touch screens are an increasingly common feature on personal computing devices, especially smartphones, where size and user interface advantages accrue from consolidating multiple hardware components (keyboard, number pad, etc.) into a single software definable user interface. Oily residues, or smudges, on the touch screen surface, are one side effect of touches from which frequently used patterns such as a graphical password might be inferred. In this paper we examine the feasibility of such smudge attacks on touch screens for smartphones, and focus our analysis on the Android password pattern..."Sunday, April 18, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Quaking in their boots

After a fit of hilarity (that really hurt) this blogger checked the date on the article and googled to find this story elsewhere. He found numerous references, none of them dated April the first! So, apparently this is "real". One wonders what Landau has been drinking....
Maybe it was something in the water, because the very next day another article suggested that a cap on carbon in the U.S. would be a good thing because the reduction in oil consumption would significantly hurt Iran by putting a crimp into its flow of petrodollars. It was accompanied by the graph below...
Wow, this really looks like a very serious reduction, assuming of course that the U.S. can (or will) actually reduce its emissions to get to the "167 case." However, the graph seems to imply much more than the reality... after a cursory glance one might infer that from 2010 to 20150 Iran's oil revenues would crater by approximately 90%. However, looking at the 'Core Scenario 167 bmt' on page 69 one sees that the price index for petroleum products in 2050 would be 1.20, or slightly higher than the price index for 2010 (at 1.15)Using the index numbers from the MIT Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals, this blogger graphed out the two cases - the baseline "reference case" if nothing is done, and the "167 case." If the assumption is made that Iran's production remains at 4.174 million barrels per day (as in the article), and that the 2010 price starts out at $83 a barrel you get the graph below:
Iran will "lose" the revenue between the two lines, or the area in red... Indeed a serious hit but no where near as drastic as is implied by the article's graph. Anyway, there are better reasons for the U.S. to cap its greenhouse gas emissions than a putative crimp in Iran's oil revenue...
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Great quote
"By unilaterally taking a nuclear response off the table, we are decreasing our options without getting anything in return and diminishing our ability to defend our nation from attack"- Rep. Michael R. Turner, R-Ohio
Apparently this gentleman takes exception to the part of the new U.S. Nuclear Policy Review (NPR) that rules out the possibility of using nuclear arms against non-nuclear countries that are in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). As if there are any circumstances under which the U.S. would use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state. Apparently taking an unusable "option" off the table is dangerous.
Shh, please, no one tell this gentleman that President Obama has also taken off the table using stupid nicknames for these countries' leaders, holding his breath until he gets blue in the face, sticking his fingers in his ears while saying "Nyah, nyah, nyah..." and other equally likely to be used "options"...
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Finally!

Well, FP's 'What would it cost for the U.S. to get Israel-level airport security?' attempts to do the math, albeit rather roughly. However, it does show the difficulties involved, and the numbers derived are large enough to cast doubt on the viability of the meme, for example:
"According to an analysis by Bloomberg News, Israel spends around 10 times more per passenger than the United States does. "[An analyst] estimated El Al's security bill at $100 million a year, which amounts to $76.92 per trip by its 1.3 million passengers. Half is paid by the Israeli government," Peter Robison wrote. The United States, in comparison, spent in 2008 $5.74 billion to monitor and protect 735,297,000 enplanements, or around $7.80 a passenger ..."
"Well, for one, the United States would need a whole lot more security guards -- at least according to my back-of-the-envelope math. Say each passenger flying through a U.S. airport received on average 10 minutes of questioning from one guard. That would work out to 7.35 billion minutes, or 123 million hours, of work annually. We'd need 3 million full-time guards to perform it. That's 200,000 more people than the total number of active and reserve military personnel, and twice the number of U.S. Wal-Mart employees. It would cost somewhere north of $150 billion a year ..."
"Working the math out another way, let's say that the U.S. decided to spend as much per passenger as Israel does, according to the Bloomberg analysis. We'd then pour around $62.2 billion a year into airport security -- more than 10 times what we currently spend on airport security, and about as much as we spent fighting the war in Afghanistan last year ..."
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Worth repeating? II

Below are reprints of a number of much older entries - the first is on the topic of profiling; the second some basic math concepts for security; the third re a reliance on "science and technology" to ensure safety; and the fourth a framework against terrorism. Reading and integrating all four might be useful in achieving a holistic view of the issues.
Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 there have been many discussions regarding "profiling" at airports. These discussions have been chaotic, with proponents and opponents firmly entrenched in their positions and talking past each other. The inability to have a useful and substantive discussion has mainly been due to the lack of a common agreement of what constitutes "profiling". The following is a very brief attempt to focus in on profiling, and to provide an example of a system that might be used for profiling airline passengers for increased scrutiny......
Profiling is not simply picking out a certain racial or demographic group for increased scrutiny. Besides being unethical and possibly illegal, this is also inefficient and of limited utility. The use of overly broad categories (e.g. Middle-Eastern looking males, dark-skinned men with beards, etc..) will only result in the identification of many people for increased scrutiny. This results in an increase in the dissatisfaction of the target group without a commensurate increase in real security. Profiling is the judicious use of a select group of specific criteria designed to shrink as much as possible the universe of subjects to be identified for increased scrutiny. These criteria need to be focused on the target that is to be screened for. By this means resources may be deployed effectively with a much higher probability of identification of the target, resulting in a real increase in security.
For example, the following is a system that could be used for airport profiling. Each passenger would be assigned different weights for a number of criteria based on subject demographics, travel information, and environmental factors:.
a) Demographic data:
- Country of origin. A weight between 1 and 10 by country of origin, e.g. Saudi Arabia 10, Switzerland 1
- Age - 18-40 +4 / >60 -4
- Gender - Male +5 / Female -1
- One-way ticket +4
- Ticket purchase: >6 months prior to trip -2 / 4-6 months prior to current trip +1 /
- No luggage +2
- A weight between 1 and 10 by country of visit for each overseas trip in the previous 3 years (e.g. France, Germany, U.K. +10, Iran +5, Hong Kong +2, Switzerland +1, etc.)
- US citizen > 20 years -7
- US citizen 10-20 years -3
- US resident > 20 years -5
- US resident 10-20 years -2
- High alert +10, medium alert +5
For this system to work it would be necessary that:
- The criteria and weightings not be public knowledge, to prevent terrorists 'gaming' the system.
- The criteria be updated (both the individual criteria and the weightings) on a regular basis to ensure that the system evolves with changes in the threat profile.
- While the system should be followed as much as possible, room needs to be left for human discretion e.g. security check of a person exhibiting excessive nervousness, etc.
- Base rate fallacy:
Assuming that one in twenty five million flyers actually is a terrorist, the mechanism's false positive rate means that in addition to the one person who is a terrorist, (1-0.9999)*25,000,000 = 2,500 people will also be incorrectly identified as terrorists. Thus the probability that the person identified is a terrorist actually is one is 1/2500*100 = 0.04%
Thus, though the accuracy of the mechanism is high it is very likely that the rate of false alarms would eventually cause the people running the mechanism to distrust its results. Any such mechanism (e.g. biometric identification of iris) would also be expensive, and its deployment in every airport would be a burden in terms of dollars, manpower, etc.

- Crossover error rate:
III. OPED14: Science to the rescue (reprinted from Feb 2002)
- As reported in the British journal Nature, researchers at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN) have found that when people lie the blood flow around their eyes increases, and so have proposed that screeners using high-definition, heat-sensing cameras could determine if someone was telling the truth or a lie. Preliminary experiments have been conducted using this technology and the findings are that the accuracy of this system is slightly higher than that of polygraphs. In the experiment the camera identified 75% of the "guilty" subjects and 90% of the "innocent" subjects. The Mayo Clinic study authors' hypothesis is that this blushing is part of the "fright or flight response", which can signal willful deception. Skeptics point to the possibility that the physiological changes could be due to anxiety and not guilt. Others have noted that the number of subjects used in the experiment is too small to determine if this truly is meaningful. However, Honeywell has patented this system, and tests will be ongoing to see if this will work in real-life situations.
- Another technology showing promise is using an ion mobility spectrometer to detect minute traces of explosives. The Sandia National Laboratories has developed a portal for airport use that closely resembles the existing metal detectors. As the passengers pass through the portal air flows downwards from the top of the portal. Small air jets on the sides agitate the passengers' clothing to dislodge any contamination. The airflow is then pulled into a 'screen preconcentrator' in which the large volume of air is passed through a high-density metal screen. Heavy organic molecules (e.g. trace explosives) are trapped by the screen. The screen is then heated to 200 degrees Centigrade, which converts any collected explosive traces back into a gas that is then passed to the ion mobility sensor. The net effect is that trace explosives from a large volume of air are concentrated by a factor of 100-1000 before passing to the spectrometer for detection, thus increasing the chances of detection. Experiments done at the Alburquerque airport in 1997 were positive... A throughput rate of five passengers/minute was achieved, with a false detection rate of less than one percent (information on the types or quantities of explosives this system can detect were not disclosed for security reasons.) Further refinement of this portal has been underway for several years, and it may be commercially available in the near future.
- A problem with airport screeners is that even well trained security personnel find it difficulty to maintain the requisite level of concentration while watching X-ray scanner screens for long periods. PerkinElmer Instruments (Boston, MA) has developed a software package known as TIP - Threat Image Projection to combat this and to ensure that screeners stay alert. The software can project images of guns, knives, or explosive devices on the images of the bags that are passing through the scanners. This is used to improve the screeners' abilities, as well as to periodically check on their alertness.
- Another promising technology is Quadropole Resonance. It is known that when explosives are bombarded with certain radio frequencies the nitrogen compounds in the explosives vibrate, and that QR scanners can then detect these vibrations. This technology is being adapted to scan trucks, shipping containers, etc. The truck or container is bombarded with low-power radio waves of specific frequencies. If explosives are present their nitrogen compounds begin to vibrate, and very sensitive radio receivers that surround the truck pick this up. A computer system can then identify the explosive present by comparing the signals captured against a database of known compounds. Since the radio waves do not effect people and are not distorted by steel shipping containers, entire vehicles could be scanned at one time.
IV. OPED23 A framework against terror (reprint from Apr 2002)
This OPED attempts to demonstrate a framework against terrorism. First some background:
- The struggle against terrorism is not "a war". While the war metaphor might seem apt given the magnitude of the endeavor, it is counter-productive in the longer run. First, although military action is a significant and integral component, a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy will also have intelligence , diplomatic, civil defense or homeland security, economic, financial , law enforcement, and human rights components in addition to the military component. Second, the war metaphor tends to imply an end point, when in reality the fight against terrorism has no conclusion and must be an integral part of society. Third, the war metaphor might make people feel that the struggle against terrorism is only the responsibility of the armed forces when in fact every citizen has a role to play. Lastly, the war metaphor twists the terms of the debate which can have unfortunate and unintended consequences - examples might be a lessening of concern about our civil liberties that result in inappropriate actions (e.g. certain parts of the USA PATRIOT Act), or a stifling of the debate that is a vital and integral part of our democratic system (e.g. when any discussion over the direction the country is taking is shouted down by people as inappropriate while we are "at war")
- The complexity of the counter-terrorism strategy with all its different parts places a premium on coordinating the various efforts.Finally, in general the various components of the counter-terrorism strategy enumerated above must all posses the following characteristics:
- Appropriate funding for long-term viability.
- Multi-layered, redundant services to provide protection "in depth".
- Utilization of people with the appropriate levels of expertise and core competencies.
- Real-time detection and response.
- Resilient security that is adaptive and can respond to a changing threat environment.
- An emphasis on partnerships.

























