Source: Georgia: Background and U.S. Policy (22-pg CRS PDF)
Take some of this with a grain of salt... For a slightly different take, read some previous entries on Georgia from between 2008 and 2014...
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Update IX - Georgia update
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Five Years On - Aug 4th, 2013
Misc update - Georgia - Jun 1st, 2013
Misc update (Georgia) - May 18th, 2012
Misc update (Georgia) - Dec 28th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Criminal Charges Filed Against Saakashvili - "... Georgian prosecutor’s office said on July 28 that it filed criminal charges against former president Mikheil Saakashvili. Prosecutor’s office said that charges of exceeding official authorities stem from breaking up of the November 7, 2007 anti-government protests, as well as raid on and “seizure” of Imedi TV station and other assets owned at the time by tycoon Badri Patarkatsishvili, who died in February, 2008. Prosecutor's office said decision was made to also file same charges against Vano Merabishvili, who was interior minister in 2007; then chief prosecutor Zurab Adeishvili; then defense minister Davit Kezerashvili and Gigi Ugulava, who at the time was Tbilisi mayor..."
Sunday, August 4, 2013
Five years on...
It's coming up on the fifth anniversary of the 2008 South Ossetia War (a.k.a. the Russia-Georgia War, the Five-Day War, etc.). Here is one remembrance. An interview with then-President Dimitri Medvedev. And a few other relevant links from a variety of sources:
Georgian attitudes towards Russia:
Source: Public Attitudes in Georgia (June 2013)
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update - Georgia - Jun 1st, 2013
Misc update (Georgia) - May 18th, 2012
Misc update (Georgia) - Dec 28th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Saturday, June 1, 2013
Misc update - Georgia
The Russia: Other Points of View blog had a recent entry on... Georgia. 'Georgian Reflections' has a nice overview of the history/situation (with many links).
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update (Georgia) - May 18th, 2012
Misc update (Georgia) - Dec 28th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Friday, May 18, 2012
Misc update (Georgia)
Relations between Russia, Georgia, NATO, and the U.S. continue to exist in a sort of cold war, with occasional rhetorical eruptions on both sides and with the internal politics of the various parties roiled by the circumstances resulting from the war of 2008... Some recent headlines:
Saakashvili Says Chicago Summit To Note Tbilisi's NATO Progress. May 17th, 2012. "...President Mikhail Saakashvili says he expects the upcoming NATO summit in Chicago to note the progress Georgia has made toward membership. Starting a U.S. tour, Saakashvili told Georgian journalists after his arrival in New York on May 16 that, although the Chicago summit is not about NATO enlargement, "there is every reason to believe that the forum will note the progress achieved by Georgia in recent years in approaching the alliance's standards" on democracy, human rights and military readiness. Saakashvili has been invited to the NATO summit that is taking place in Chicago on May 21-22. ..."
Saakashvili puts it all on the line. April 30th, 2012. "...An uncomfortable promise from Georgia's combative president in reference to the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as reported by RFE/RL: "Saakashvili said he was even willing to sacrifice parts of his body that Moscow has "shown interest in" -- a hint at then-President Vladimir Putin's infamous 2008 pledge to "hang Saakashvili by the balls." ..."
Ex-K.G.B. Agent Said to Win South Ossetia Presidency. April 8th, 2012. "...Early results from a fourth round of voting in South Ossetia on Sunday indicated that the former K.G.B. official Leonid Tibilov had been elected president, bringing an end to a long, tumultuous campaign season that proved an embarrassment to Moscow, the region’s source of military and financial support..."
The Russian Military Has an Action Plan Involving Georgia if Iran Is Attacked. April 5th, 2012. "...Russian Defense Ministry sources told the semiofficial news agency Interfax that action plans are being finalized to react to an armed conflict involving Iran and its nuclear program. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces “calculates” that military action against Iran will commence “in the summer” of 2012. Since Israel does not have sufficient assets to defeat Iranian defenses, the Russian military considers US military involvement inevitable (Interfax, March 30). Bits of information have been appearing, indicating the essence of Russian military action. Last December it was disclosed that families of servicemen from the Russian base in Armenia have been evacuated to Russia, while the troops have been moved from the capital, Yerevan, north to Gumri – closer to the borders of Georgia and Turkey. The preparation of Russian forces in Armenia for action in the event of military conflict with Iran began “two years ago”
Saakashvili Links Russia's Planned Military Drills with Elections in Georgia. April 1st, 2012. "...Russia’s planned military exercises this fall was timed deliberately to coincide with Georgia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for October, President Saakashvili said on March 31. “It is not a coincidence that our neighbor scheduled its large-scale military exercises for second half of September, just several days before elections [in Georgia]. This timing is really not a coincidence,” Saakashvili said ..."
U.S. Marines Exercise With Georgians, Russia Calls It "Provocation" March 20th, 2012. "...U.S. Marines and Georgian soldiers are conducting joint military exercises and, in a development that everyone saw coming, it's become controversial, with Russia calling it a "provocation." The exercises include 350 Marines and 400 Georgian troops and are scheduled to end Wednesday after nine days of drills. The U.S. contingent is part of the Romania-based Black Sea Rotational Force. Their goal is to build military-military relations with the Georgians, while the Georgians are training to go to Afghanistan. ..."
Lugar Introduces NATO Enlargement Bill March 9th, 2012. "... U.S. Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) has introduced the NATO Enhancement Act, a bill to encourage further enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and to deepen U.S. strategic partnerships with NATO allies. “NATO enlargement has been a key element to enhancing stability and political reform among the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans.” Lugar said. “The prospect of membership in NATO has not only improved regional security, it is helping to transform nations into close economic and national security partners of the United States.”
South Ossetian Unit To Serve In Russian Military. Feb 15th, 2012. "... The Russian military base in South Ossetia will soon include a battalion for Ossetians, which government officials say will act as a "forge" to build a capable military in the quasi-independent country, but which looks just as much like a blow against the territory's fragile sovereignty. .."
Caucasus Context: Kenneth Yalowitz on Obama-Saakashvili meeting February 2012. "It is the first presidential meeting that Saakashvili has had recently and it coincides with the 20th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations and Georgia’s independence. With the tense security situation in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the North Caucasus, and the changing political situation inside Russia, it was important and timely that the two presidents meet to discuss the bilateral relationship, security issues, trade and investment. Georgia’s membership in NATO and the supply of defensive military equipment to Georgia were certainly discussed and appreciation expressed for Georgia’s contributions to allied forces in Iraq and Afganhistan. President Saakashvili also met Secretary of State Clinton and the Georgian Defense Minister met Defense Secretary Panetta in Europe so this was an opportunity to review the whole relationship..."
The Dangerous Idea of NATO Expansion Will Not Die Jan 31st, 2012. "...We certainly hope Obama’s comment was an example of the meaningless pleasantries that a President may sometimes have to use to make his guest feel welcome and to give him a soundbite he can use to placate folks back home. If Obama is serious about supporting Georgian membership at the Chicago summit, we have to hope that the Europeans members that opposed this move four years ago will prevent it again. There was never a good argument for bring Georgia into the alliance. It was always a dangerous, irresponsible idea, and one that the 2008 war should have killed off forever. ..."
Georgia’s Exclusion from NATO: Is the West Out of Excuses? Jan 31st, 2012. "...President Obama and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili were all smiles after their meeting at the White House earlier today. Obama reportedly told Saakashvili he wants a U.S.-Georgia free trade agreement, and the two leaders discussed security cooperation as well. Obama also made a verbal gesture toward Georgia that everyone pretends to be reassured by even though it’s usually utterly meaningless: He reaffirmed American support for Georgia’s acceptance into NATO. But in this case, Obama’s NATO comments are actually important, whether the NATO bid goes anywhere or not. That’s because the reasons to keep Georgia out of NATO have disappeared, and we’ll find out whether the West’s commitment to its allies and to global security are all, as Obama might say, “just words.” ..."
Obama and Saakashvili Signal No Movement On Weapons To Georgia. Jan 30th, 2012. "...Presidents Obama and Saakashvili has their much-anticipated Oval Office meeting Monday afternoon, and their comments to the press afterwards suggested that differences of opinion remained over the question of the U.S. supplying weapons to Georgia. That has become the most fraught element of the U.S.-Georgia partnership, with Tbilisi pushing hard to get the U.S. to give or sell the Georgians "defensive" weapons, and the U.S. demurring. Congress recently tried to force Obama to restart a more robust defense cooperation, including arms sales, but Obama then declared his intention to ignore Congress, setting up the potential of a small crisis between the tiny Caucasus nation and its would-be superpower patron. At the White House meeting, in spite of the formal professions of strong cooperation, it wasn't hard to see cracks in that facade. ..."
Saakashvili Says Chicago Summit To Note Tbilisi's NATO Progress. May 17th, 2012. "...President Mikhail Saakashvili says he expects the upcoming NATO summit in Chicago to note the progress Georgia has made toward membership. Starting a U.S. tour, Saakashvili told Georgian journalists after his arrival in New York on May 16 that, although the Chicago summit is not about NATO enlargement, "there is every reason to believe that the forum will note the progress achieved by Georgia in recent years in approaching the alliance's standards" on democracy, human rights and military readiness. Saakashvili has been invited to the NATO summit that is taking place in Chicago on May 21-22. ..."
Saakashvili puts it all on the line. April 30th, 2012. "...An uncomfortable promise from Georgia's combative president in reference to the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as reported by RFE/RL: "Saakashvili said he was even willing to sacrifice parts of his body that Moscow has "shown interest in" -- a hint at then-President Vladimir Putin's infamous 2008 pledge to "hang Saakashvili by the balls." ..."
Ex-K.G.B. Agent Said to Win South Ossetia Presidency. April 8th, 2012. "...Early results from a fourth round of voting in South Ossetia on Sunday indicated that the former K.G.B. official Leonid Tibilov had been elected president, bringing an end to a long, tumultuous campaign season that proved an embarrassment to Moscow, the region’s source of military and financial support..."
The Russian Military Has an Action Plan Involving Georgia if Iran Is Attacked. April 5th, 2012. "...Russian Defense Ministry sources told the semiofficial news agency Interfax that action plans are being finalized to react to an armed conflict involving Iran and its nuclear program. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces “calculates” that military action against Iran will commence “in the summer” of 2012. Since Israel does not have sufficient assets to defeat Iranian defenses, the Russian military considers US military involvement inevitable (Interfax, March 30). Bits of information have been appearing, indicating the essence of Russian military action. Last December it was disclosed that families of servicemen from the Russian base in Armenia have been evacuated to Russia, while the troops have been moved from the capital, Yerevan, north to Gumri – closer to the borders of Georgia and Turkey. The preparation of Russian forces in Armenia for action in the event of military conflict with Iran began “two years ago”
Saakashvili Links Russia's Planned Military Drills with Elections in Georgia. April 1st, 2012. "...Russia’s planned military exercises this fall was timed deliberately to coincide with Georgia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for October, President Saakashvili said on March 31. “It is not a coincidence that our neighbor scheduled its large-scale military exercises for second half of September, just several days before elections [in Georgia]. This timing is really not a coincidence,” Saakashvili said ..."
U.S. Marines Exercise With Georgians, Russia Calls It "Provocation" March 20th, 2012. "...U.S. Marines and Georgian soldiers are conducting joint military exercises and, in a development that everyone saw coming, it's become controversial, with Russia calling it a "provocation." The exercises include 350 Marines and 400 Georgian troops and are scheduled to end Wednesday after nine days of drills. The U.S. contingent is part of the Romania-based Black Sea Rotational Force. Their goal is to build military-military relations with the Georgians, while the Georgians are training to go to Afghanistan. ..."
Lugar Introduces NATO Enlargement Bill March 9th, 2012. "... U.S. Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) has introduced the NATO Enhancement Act, a bill to encourage further enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and to deepen U.S. strategic partnerships with NATO allies. “NATO enlargement has been a key element to enhancing stability and political reform among the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans.” Lugar said. “The prospect of membership in NATO has not only improved regional security, it is helping to transform nations into close economic and national security partners of the United States.”
South Ossetian Unit To Serve In Russian Military. Feb 15th, 2012. "... The Russian military base in South Ossetia will soon include a battalion for Ossetians, which government officials say will act as a "forge" to build a capable military in the quasi-independent country, but which looks just as much like a blow against the territory's fragile sovereignty. .."
Caucasus Context: Kenneth Yalowitz on Obama-Saakashvili meeting February 2012. "It is the first presidential meeting that Saakashvili has had recently and it coincides with the 20th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations and Georgia’s independence. With the tense security situation in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the North Caucasus, and the changing political situation inside Russia, it was important and timely that the two presidents meet to discuss the bilateral relationship, security issues, trade and investment. Georgia’s membership in NATO and the supply of defensive military equipment to Georgia were certainly discussed and appreciation expressed for Georgia’s contributions to allied forces in Iraq and Afganhistan. President Saakashvili also met Secretary of State Clinton and the Georgian Defense Minister met Defense Secretary Panetta in Europe so this was an opportunity to review the whole relationship..."
The Dangerous Idea of NATO Expansion Will Not Die Jan 31st, 2012. "...We certainly hope Obama’s comment was an example of the meaningless pleasantries that a President may sometimes have to use to make his guest feel welcome and to give him a soundbite he can use to placate folks back home. If Obama is serious about supporting Georgian membership at the Chicago summit, we have to hope that the Europeans members that opposed this move four years ago will prevent it again. There was never a good argument for bring Georgia into the alliance. It was always a dangerous, irresponsible idea, and one that the 2008 war should have killed off forever. ..."
Georgia’s Exclusion from NATO: Is the West Out of Excuses? Jan 31st, 2012. "...President Obama and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili were all smiles after their meeting at the White House earlier today. Obama reportedly told Saakashvili he wants a U.S.-Georgia free trade agreement, and the two leaders discussed security cooperation as well. Obama also made a verbal gesture toward Georgia that everyone pretends to be reassured by even though it’s usually utterly meaningless: He reaffirmed American support for Georgia’s acceptance into NATO. But in this case, Obama’s NATO comments are actually important, whether the NATO bid goes anywhere or not. That’s because the reasons to keep Georgia out of NATO have disappeared, and we’ll find out whether the West’s commitment to its allies and to global security are all, as Obama might say, “just words.” ..."
Obama and Saakashvili Signal No Movement On Weapons To Georgia. Jan 30th, 2012. "...Presidents Obama and Saakashvili has their much-anticipated Oval Office meeting Monday afternoon, and their comments to the press afterwards suggested that differences of opinion remained over the question of the U.S. supplying weapons to Georgia. That has become the most fraught element of the U.S.-Georgia partnership, with Tbilisi pushing hard to get the U.S. to give or sell the Georgians "defensive" weapons, and the U.S. demurring. Congress recently tried to force Obama to restart a more robust defense cooperation, including arms sales, but Obama then declared his intention to ignore Congress, setting up the potential of a small crisis between the tiny Caucasus nation and its would-be superpower patron. At the White House meeting, in spite of the formal professions of strong cooperation, it wasn't hard to see cracks in that facade. ..."
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update (Georgia) - Dec 28th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Misc update (Georgia)
Relations between Russia, Georgia, NATO, and the U.S. exist in a sort of cold war, with occasional rhetorical eruptions on both sides and with the internal politics of the various parties roiled by the circumstances resulting from the war of 2008... Some headlines:
American re-arming of Georgia will spark new aggression – S. Ossetia. Dec 21st, 2011 - "... The South Ossetian Foreign Ministry has stated that a US Senate draft resolution on the resumption of arms supplies to Georgia can be seen as pushing Tbilisi to aggression against its former republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The ministry voiced its regret over the fact that American senators drew no conclusions from “the tragic events of August 2008 and have once again settled down to a course of encouraging [Georgian President] Saakashvili to a new aggression to please their political ambitions,”cites Interfax.
Will the US resume weapons sales to Georgia? Dec 19th, 2011 - "... The US Congress has mandated that the US begin to sell weapons again to Georgia, re-establishing full military ties for the first time since the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. This will likely throw a wrench into the delicate "reset" between Washington and Moscow. Deep inside the massive military authorisation bill passed on December 15, Section 1242 calls on the Secretaries of Defence and State to develop a plan within 90 days "for the normalisation of United States defence cooperation with the Republic of Georgia, including the sale of defensive arms". It encourages NATO member and candidate countries "to restore and enhance their sales of defensive articles and services to the Republic of Georgia as part of a broader NATO effort to deepen its defense relationship and cooperation with the Republic of Georgia"..."
Russian army officer jailed for spying for Georgia. Dec 7th, 2011 - "... A former Russian Army major was given a 12-year prison term on Wednesday for spying for Georgia, a RIA Novosti correspondent reported from the courtroom..."
Experts do not rule out Russia's military intervention in situation in South Ossetia. Nov 29th, 2011 - "... Mass protests in Tskhinvali may cause Russia's military intervention to settle the situation, according to Ivan Sukhov, a columnist for "The Time of News", and Alan Parastaev, an employee for the project of Radio Liberty "Echo of the Caucasus". Today, the Supreme Court of South Ossetia has considered the complaint lodged by the presidential candidate Anatoly Bibilov that on the voting day the electorate was pressed on, and recognized the presidential election in South Ossetia invalid. On the decision of the Court, all the results of the second round of the election, where Alla Djioeva was Bibilov's opponent, have been annulled. Also today, the parliament of South Ossetia has appointed the repeated presidential election on March 25, 2012..."
Kremlin Official Accuses U.S. Of "Murdering" Russian Soldiers In South Ossetia. Nov 30th, 2011 - "... A senior Russian official has blamed the U.S. and NATO for the "murder" of Russian peacekeepers during the 2008 war in South Ossetia. The official, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Nazarov, made the comments at a conference in Moscow on Wednesday.."
The Russian-Georgian war as a turning point. Nov 24th, 2011 - "... President Dmitry Medvedev made a remarkable statement during a speech to military officers in southern Russia early this week. Regarding the August 2008 war between Russian and Georgia, he said, “For some of our partners, including NATO, it was a signal that they must think about geopolitical stability before making a decision to expand the alliance.”..."
Medvedev Gets Caught Telling The Truth. Nov 22nd, 2011 - "... In a rare instance of truth telling, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appeared to reveal on Monday the real reason Moscow went to war with Georgia in August 2008. Speaking to officers of the Southern Military District in Vladikavkaz, Medvedev seemed to suggest that the goal was preventing Georgia from joining NATO..."
Ivanishvili: We Started the War with South Ossetia. Nov 2nd, 2011 - "... Georgia's billionaire/politician Bidzina Ivanishvili has given his first press conference in which he expanded on his views on defense and foreign policy, which have been the matter of some speculation since he entered the political arena. He reiterated, but in stronger terms, his previous assessment that it was Georgia, not Russia, who started the war over South Ossetia..."
“Frozen conflicts” hinder NATO's enlargement to South Caucasus. Sept 29th, 2011 - "... Most likely, Putin will continue to pursue the policy Russia has pursued with respect to the South Caucasus in recent years. It would probably be the most pragmatic policy line, as Moscow at this stage is not interested in violating the status quo in the neighboring states. Putin, in my opinion, will try to keep the allied relations with Armenia and the friendliest relations with Azerbaijan as much as possible..."
One small step towards recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Aug 31st, 2011 - "... The recent presidential elections in Abkhazia have reignited the debate concerning the legitimacy of any internal political developments in the two newly independent states, Abkhazia and South Ossetia..."
Vice President Wins Georgian Rebel Region's Presidential Election. Aug 27th, 2011 - "... The vice president of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has won the presidential election there. Central Election Commission Chairman Batal Tabagua told reporters that preliminary figures showed Aleksandr Ankvab taking 55 percent of the vote. Tbilisi called the polls illegitimate and NATO said it would refuse to recognize them..."
Russia files criminal lawsuit against Georgia over August 2008 war. Aug 9th, 2011 - "... Russia has sent the copies of all materials collected during the investigation into the August 2008 Georgian war on South Ossetia to the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC), Vladimir Markin, the official spokesman for the Russian Investigative Committee, told reporters on Monday. He emphasized that the Georgian side had repeatedly refused to cooperate with Russian investigative bodies in establishing the truth..."
Medvedev reignites war of words over blame for Georgia conflict. Aug 8th, 2011 - "... Three years after the short, bitter war that left hundreds dead and redrew the map of the Caucasus, Russia and Georgia have been trading insults and accusations over what happened in the run-up to the conflict..."
Georgia: Putin Tweaks Tbilisi on Ossetian Annexation. Aug 8th, 2011 - "... Three years after their war, Russia and Georgia are still fighting over the separatist territory of South Ossetia. Russia’s political supremo, Vladimir Putin, ignited the latest skirmish with a suggestion that South Ossetia may opt to join the Russian Federation. ..."
Russia, Georgia remain in distrustful deadlock on anniversary of 2008 war. Aug 5th, 2011 - "... The war that erupted between Russia and its little post-Soviet neighbor Georgia three years ago this weekend was unexpected, extremely violent, and brief, much like the sudden summer storms that descend upon the Caucasus Mountains at this time of year..."
'Resolution on Occupation' Passed in U.S. Senate. Jul 30th, 2011 - "The U.S. Senate unanimously passed on July 29 a resolution supporting Georgia’s territorial integrity and recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as regions “occupied by the Russian Federation”.
American re-arming of Georgia will spark new aggression – S. Ossetia. Dec 21st, 2011 - "... The South Ossetian Foreign Ministry has stated that a US Senate draft resolution on the resumption of arms supplies to Georgia can be seen as pushing Tbilisi to aggression against its former republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The ministry voiced its regret over the fact that American senators drew no conclusions from “the tragic events of August 2008 and have once again settled down to a course of encouraging [Georgian President] Saakashvili to a new aggression to please their political ambitions,”cites Interfax.
Will the US resume weapons sales to Georgia? Dec 19th, 2011 - "... The US Congress has mandated that the US begin to sell weapons again to Georgia, re-establishing full military ties for the first time since the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. This will likely throw a wrench into the delicate "reset" between Washington and Moscow. Deep inside the massive military authorisation bill passed on December 15, Section 1242 calls on the Secretaries of Defence and State to develop a plan within 90 days "for the normalisation of United States defence cooperation with the Republic of Georgia, including the sale of defensive arms". It encourages NATO member and candidate countries "to restore and enhance their sales of defensive articles and services to the Republic of Georgia as part of a broader NATO effort to deepen its defense relationship and cooperation with the Republic of Georgia"..."
Russian army officer jailed for spying for Georgia. Dec 7th, 2011 - "... A former Russian Army major was given a 12-year prison term on Wednesday for spying for Georgia, a RIA Novosti correspondent reported from the courtroom..."
Experts do not rule out Russia's military intervention in situation in South Ossetia. Nov 29th, 2011 - "... Mass protests in Tskhinvali may cause Russia's military intervention to settle the situation, according to Ivan Sukhov, a columnist for "The Time of News", and Alan Parastaev, an employee for the project of Radio Liberty "Echo of the Caucasus". Today, the Supreme Court of South Ossetia has considered the complaint lodged by the presidential candidate Anatoly Bibilov that on the voting day the electorate was pressed on, and recognized the presidential election in South Ossetia invalid. On the decision of the Court, all the results of the second round of the election, where Alla Djioeva was Bibilov's opponent, have been annulled. Also today, the parliament of South Ossetia has appointed the repeated presidential election on March 25, 2012..."
Kremlin Official Accuses U.S. Of "Murdering" Russian Soldiers In South Ossetia. Nov 30th, 2011 - "... A senior Russian official has blamed the U.S. and NATO for the "murder" of Russian peacekeepers during the 2008 war in South Ossetia. The official, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Nazarov, made the comments at a conference in Moscow on Wednesday.."
The Russian-Georgian war as a turning point. Nov 24th, 2011 - "... President Dmitry Medvedev made a remarkable statement during a speech to military officers in southern Russia early this week. Regarding the August 2008 war between Russian and Georgia, he said, “For some of our partners, including NATO, it was a signal that they must think about geopolitical stability before making a decision to expand the alliance.”..."
Medvedev Gets Caught Telling The Truth. Nov 22nd, 2011 - "... In a rare instance of truth telling, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appeared to reveal on Monday the real reason Moscow went to war with Georgia in August 2008. Speaking to officers of the Southern Military District in Vladikavkaz, Medvedev seemed to suggest that the goal was preventing Georgia from joining NATO..."
Ivanishvili: We Started the War with South Ossetia. Nov 2nd, 2011 - "... Georgia's billionaire/politician Bidzina Ivanishvili has given his first press conference in which he expanded on his views on defense and foreign policy, which have been the matter of some speculation since he entered the political arena. He reiterated, but in stronger terms, his previous assessment that it was Georgia, not Russia, who started the war over South Ossetia..."
“Frozen conflicts” hinder NATO's enlargement to South Caucasus. Sept 29th, 2011 - "... Most likely, Putin will continue to pursue the policy Russia has pursued with respect to the South Caucasus in recent years. It would probably be the most pragmatic policy line, as Moscow at this stage is not interested in violating the status quo in the neighboring states. Putin, in my opinion, will try to keep the allied relations with Armenia and the friendliest relations with Azerbaijan as much as possible..."
One small step towards recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Aug 31st, 2011 - "... The recent presidential elections in Abkhazia have reignited the debate concerning the legitimacy of any internal political developments in the two newly independent states, Abkhazia and South Ossetia..."
Vice President Wins Georgian Rebel Region's Presidential Election. Aug 27th, 2011 - "... The vice president of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has won the presidential election there. Central Election Commission Chairman Batal Tabagua told reporters that preliminary figures showed Aleksandr Ankvab taking 55 percent of the vote. Tbilisi called the polls illegitimate and NATO said it would refuse to recognize them..."
Russia files criminal lawsuit against Georgia over August 2008 war. Aug 9th, 2011 - "... Russia has sent the copies of all materials collected during the investigation into the August 2008 Georgian war on South Ossetia to the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC), Vladimir Markin, the official spokesman for the Russian Investigative Committee, told reporters on Monday. He emphasized that the Georgian side had repeatedly refused to cooperate with Russian investigative bodies in establishing the truth..."
Medvedev reignites war of words over blame for Georgia conflict. Aug 8th, 2011 - "... Three years after the short, bitter war that left hundreds dead and redrew the map of the Caucasus, Russia and Georgia have been trading insults and accusations over what happened in the run-up to the conflict..."
Georgia: Putin Tweaks Tbilisi on Ossetian Annexation. Aug 8th, 2011 - "... Three years after their war, Russia and Georgia are still fighting over the separatist territory of South Ossetia. Russia’s political supremo, Vladimir Putin, ignited the latest skirmish with a suggestion that South Ossetia may opt to join the Russian Federation. ..."
Russia, Georgia remain in distrustful deadlock on anniversary of 2008 war. Aug 5th, 2011 - "... The war that erupted between Russia and its little post-Soviet neighbor Georgia three years ago this weekend was unexpected, extremely violent, and brief, much like the sudden summer storms that descend upon the Caucasus Mountains at this time of year..."
'Resolution on Occupation' Passed in U.S. Senate. Jul 30th, 2011 - "The U.S. Senate unanimously passed on July 29 a resolution supporting Georgia’s territorial integrity and recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as regions “occupied by the Russian Federation”.
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update (Georgia) - May 15th, 2011
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sept 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Misc update (Georgia)
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
Misc update (Georgia) - Mar 26th, 2011
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sep 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
So, Georgia will host a NATO meeting in Tbilisi in November this year, and still expects to become a member... despite some skepticism... And Saakashvili would like the U.S. to provide heavy weaponry to allow Georgia to "defend itself from Russia."
Meanwhile, Ronald Asmus, author of "A Little War Which Shook The World" (see reviews linked above), passed away this month, mourned by many.
Asmus pushed NATO expansion
Baltics mourn Ronald Asmus
Passing of Ronald Asmus: Press Statement, Hillary Rodham Clinton
Vilnius’ mourning over the death of Ronald Asmus, friend of the Baltic states
Ronald D. Asmus, Official Who Favored Expanded NATO, Dies at 53
Meanwhile, Ronald Asmus, author of "A Little War Which Shook The World" (see reviews linked above), passed away this month, mourned by many.
Asmus pushed NATO expansion
Baltics mourn Ronald Asmus
Passing of Ronald Asmus: Press Statement, Hillary Rodham Clinton
Vilnius’ mourning over the death of Ronald Asmus, friend of the Baltic states
Ronald D. Asmus, Official Who Favored Expanded NATO, Dies at 53
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Misc update (Georgia)
Part of the Wikileaks' trove of diplomatic cables included those relating to the Russia-Georgian war which took place August 2008 in South Ossetia. Some have taken it as vindication of the Georgian position that they did not start the conflict. Example: "... The ambassador’s supposed account of the events (published in English) contradicts the view espoused by many in the international community that Georgia sparked the fighting by attacking South Ossetia in a bid to reclaim the secessionist region. The documents instead suggest that South Ossetian separatist fighters initiated the fighting..." (here)
Others, however, interpreted the facts differently, and noted that most "facts" reported by the U.S. ambassador relied entirely on Georgian government sources... Example: "... The New York Times, which has received the State Department documents so far released by WikiLeaks, commented on Wednesday that these reports by the US embassy in Tbilisi were not based on any field intelligence but rather solely relied on information from sources within the Georgian government. The cable contained no evidence that the Ossetian attacks after the cease-fire had actually occurred and played down the only independent account, which came from military observers in Tskhinvali from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,” the Times reported..." (here)
The foolishness of choosing arbitrary points of origin for the conflict, and wanting to have distinct 'guilty' and 'innocent' parties is manifest - clearly the "war" resulted from a long series of actions and reactions over a period of years, with multiple provocations and plenty of bad faith on both sides...
WikiLeaks reopens debate over Russia-Georgia war
Georgia: Can WikiLeaks Cables Change the Russia-Georgia War Narrative?
WikiLeaks exposes US cover-up of Georgian attack on South Ossetia
Others, however, interpreted the facts differently, and noted that most "facts" reported by the U.S. ambassador relied entirely on Georgian government sources... Example: "... The New York Times, which has received the State Department documents so far released by WikiLeaks, commented on Wednesday that these reports by the US embassy in Tbilisi were not based on any field intelligence but rather solely relied on information from sources within the Georgian government. The cable contained no evidence that the Ossetian attacks after the cease-fire had actually occurred and played down the only independent account, which came from military observers in Tskhinvali from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,” the Times reported..." (here)
The foolishness of choosing arbitrary points of origin for the conflict, and wanting to have distinct 'guilty' and 'innocent' parties is manifest - clearly the "war" resulted from a long series of actions and reactions over a period of years, with multiple provocations and plenty of bad faith on both sides...
WikiLeaks reopens debate over Russia-Georgia war
Georgia: Can WikiLeaks Cables Change the Russia-Georgia War Narrative?
WikiLeaks exposes US cover-up of Georgian attack on South Ossetia
Meanwhile Georgia's hopes of joining NATO remains alive... Certainly what they are hearing from the U.S. ambassador shouldn't pour water on their hopes. However, whether and when the U.S. and NATO are prepared to cross that Russian "red line" remains to be seen...
NATO Envoy Gives Some Details of Georgia Reform Targets
U.S. Throws Georgia Under the Bus for Uzbekistan and the NDN?
U.S. Ambassador on Georgia's NATO Path
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sep 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Monday, May 3, 2010
Misc update...
L’ombre de Ghost Recon : la guerre de Cinq Jours en Ossétie du Sud-Géorgie (7-12 août 2008)
L’ombre de Ghost Recon. La guerre de Cinq Jours en Ossétie du Sud-Géorgie (7-12 août 2008) – part. 2
L'’ombre de Ghost Recon. La guerre de Cinq Jours en Ossétie du Sud-Géorgie (7-12 août 2008) – part. 3
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
A little war II - Apr 22nd, 2010
A little war I - Mar 17th, 2010
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sep 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Thursday, April 22, 2010
A little war - II
The March 17th, 2010 blog entry 'A little war' noted 'A Little War That Shook The World: Georgia, Russia, And The Future Of The West', a book by Ronald D. Asmus that covered the Russia-Georgia "war" of August 2008. This blogger noted "... The biggest issue that this blogger has with Asmus' book is his treatment of the entire issue related to the role of NATO, something which is pivotal. Absent Georgian aspirations to NATO membership, entertained and supported by a number of countries in the West, and the Russian objection thereto, none of this might have happened ..."
Asmus' view of the happenings over the months leading to the "little war" are informed by his view of NATO. He conflates "democracy" and "NATO" as if these are synonymous terms... Georgia was turning towards democracy, ergo NATO membership would be a natural consequence or next step in that evolution. A key player in the earlier enlargement of NATO in the '90s, Asmus' assumptions that NATO expansion is logical and good, that no right-thinking person could find this problematic in any way, and that this expansion is a natural consequence of the expansion of democracy, color his view of the world and of the happenings in this period...
Asmus is right that divisions among NATO members on Georgia's accession sent the wrong message and thereby contributed to the developments that ensued, but he is wrong in blithely dismissing the doubts entertained by many as "enlargement fatigue." Questions existed, and remain, re the role that NATO serves and should serve, and what its rationale is given the breakup of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of the Warsaw Pact. NATO, champion and the veritable embodiment of democracy? Or is it NATO, U.S. force multiplier? Asmus stands with both feet firmly in the first camp.
Take Asmus' "frame" into account while reading the book, and the bottom line remains the same: Recommended.
(Quick note: Asmus makes his bias clear, he provides full disclosure on pages 16 to 18, ending the Introduction with "Some will suggest that my involvement in Georgia and these issues make me a partial observer of the events I describe... In any case, that is a judgment I leave for you, the reader, to decide yourself.")
(Quick note: Asmus makes his bias clear, he provides full disclosure on pages 16 to 18, ending the Introduction with "Some will suggest that my involvement in Georgia and these issues make me a partial observer of the events I describe... In any case, that is a judgment I leave for you, the reader, to decide yourself.")
Other reviews:
Missiles Over Tskhinvali
Georgia and Russia: Ungodly suffering
Times Online Review and a dissent: On not connecting the dots
Related:
NATO's Strategic and Operational Challenges
The Russian-Georgian War: Political and Military Implications for U.S. Policy
Russia-Georgia Conflict in August 2008: Context & Implications for U.S. Interests
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
A little war
'A Little War That Shook The World: Georgia, Russia, And The Future Of The West' is a book by Ronald D. Asmus that covers the Russia-Georgia "war" of August 2008. It covers the background and and outlines the ratcheting up of tensions over the years leading up to the war and the outbreal of hostilities, covers the war and eventual ceasefire, then considers what lessons ought to be drawn... The author's main thesis is that this entire affair was/is much more than a regional issue, but a geopolitical decision by the Russians to prevent Georgia from "going West", and an attempt by Russia to reestablish its hegemony over its neighboring states... The author places the main blame with Russia while arguing that Georgia made many mistakes that played into Russia's hands. He also argues that the entire episode represented "a failure of Western political will and strategic imagination", and that the West made some mistakes that contributed to the eventuality of war (i.e. Kosovar independence). Finally he says that the framework in Europe needs to be re-examined, and a new strategy developed on how to deal with Russia.TimesOnline review
Reviews on amazon.com
Reviews at Barnes & Noble
Foreign Affairs capsule review
Ungodly suffering - Review by The Economist
This blogger finds the book to be mostly on the money... A few thoughts/observations:
- The author seems to have a big soft spot for Mikhail Saakashvili. While Asmus concedes that Saakashvili made some mistakes and allowed himself to be tricked by the Russians into committing rash actions, the author generally ascribes good, democratic, and limited, intentions to Saakashvili and implies he just finally buckled under the strain. Asmus compares Saakashvili to a "... kid on the playground who has been taunted, picked on, and bullied for a long time until he finally snaps..." (Page 49) with "... his political survival on the line..." Thus, Saakashvili cast more in the role of victim, and not one who planned for and/or took a very active role in pushing for the recovery of the lost regions...
- For example, the author talks about limited Georgian war aims being reflected in Georgian diplomacy. Asmus' example of these "limited" aims is that when during the crisis U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice proposed a three point ceasefire plan, Saakashvili "agreed to the essence of the package..." Clearly, a limited aim to maintain the status quo... Well, perhaps not! Asmus noted that while "agreeing" to this ceasefire, Saakashvili "... refused to allow the return of the Koikoty government and insisted on new elections to decide who would govern the region." (Page 40) Combine this insistence with the recounting elsewhere (Page 81/82) of Saakashvili's strategy of attempting to use "soft power" (development aid, etc.) to appeal to the local population "over the heads of the separatist leaders" and this "agreement" doesn't seem quite so anodyne or limited, but rather part of his on-going, calculated strategy to recover the region.
- A number of times Asmus says that Saakashvili made decisions and initiated actions "... based on the intelligence he had..." However, there is no indication given if the intelligence turned out to be correct or if it was wrong, and this blogger finds this a rather strange, and curiously passive formulation... As if designed to, once again, minimize any possible Saakashvili culpability.
- Finally, combining the fact that Saakashvili's heroes are Kemal Ataturk, Carl Gustaf Mannerheim, and King David the Builder (Note: Ataturk pulled Turkey into modernity and imposed democracy, Mannerheim's claim to fame was fighting the Red Army, while King David reunited Georgia...) with the fact that on coming to power Saakashvili promised to recover the lost regions... (Page 74) it seems clear enough that Saakashvili's aims were not "limited" in any sense.
- Asmus is right that one of Georgia's root mistakes was when it allowed (or was forced to allow) Russian troops as "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Also, his contention that the root of conflict here is much larger than just the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and actually a conflict between Russia and Georgia re the latter's desire to break free of Russian influence. However, while true, it seems that Asmus pays somewhat short shrift to the complexity and nastiness of the situation in these two areas and how difficult it will be to achieve a peaceful and long-term stable solution to their issues.
- Asmus mentions the Russian military "exercise" ('Kavkaz 2008' or 'Caucasus 2008') held just two weeks before the war broke out, that allowed Russia to ready and pre-position forces, and perhaps carry out a "dry run". However, he does not mention the 'Immediate Response 2008' training exercise that Georgia conducted with the U.S. in the same time frame. While IR08 was focused more on Iraq-style military scenarios, the omission of a mention of joint Georgian -U.S. military training just days before the outbreak of the war is curious given the wealth of detail provided on every other military and diplomatic demarche prior to, during, and after the war. (note: in point of fact, a small number of U.S. troops were still in Georgia during the war!)
- This blogger wonders why the Russians did not take Tiblisi. Per Asmus the way was wide open - the Russians (and Putin in particular) were determined to oust Saakashvili; Georgia "was cut in half"; the road to Tiblisi was open; the Georgians would be unable to stop the Russians; and the West (NATO, France, the U.S. and others) did not have a way to prevent this. While Asmus has a wealth of detail on practically every other matter he is silent on this issue, not even speculating, but skipping over this detail.
- This blogger found it interesting that NATO, the OSCE, and other bodies ignored Georgian efforts to get them involved in the deteriorating situation (Page 145), with some senior leaders so insufficiently alarmed that they did not alter their vacation plans! Also, that on at least two different occasions things bogged down because aides to Putin and aides to Saakashvili were too afraid to disturb the slumber of and wake their respective bosses!
- The biggest issue that this blogger has with Asmus' book is his treatment of the entire issue related to the role of NATO, something which is pivotal. Absent Georgian aspirations to NATO membership, entertained and supported by a number of countries in the West, and the Russian objection thereto, none of this might have happened. (Note: this point will be expanded upon in a separate blog entry).
Updated April 22nd: Remainder of review at A little war - II
Some previous blog entries on Georgia:
An inconvenient truth - Nov 26th, 2008
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia - Sep 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated) - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Friday, February 26, 2010
Friday, October 2, 2009
Update, Georgia (updated)
The European Union independent fact-finding commission led by Heidi Tagliavini and tasked with examining the circumstances surrounding the brief 'war' between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia just released its report. No surprises for anyone who had paid attention to the issue back in 2008 (e.g. see the blog entries on this topic listed below). The bottom line:
- Both Georgia and Russia contributed mightily to raise tensions in the run up to the hostilities. "A result of the involvement of outside powers unfortunately served to harden positions rather than to build common ground," especially on the Georgian side.
- "The proximate cause was the shelling by Georgian forces of the capital of the secessionist province of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, on Aug. 7, 2008"
- Once the shooting started, Russia responded disproportionately, and its reply took it "far beyond the reasonable limits of defense"
Both Georgia and Russia have found parts of the report that they like and dislike. However, very many headlines played up the "Georgia started the war" angle, and Georgia and Saakashvili have ended up with the short end of the stick. Of course, this is only because the previous U.S. administration is no longer in place, otherwise they would have been the "biggest losers"...
Lessons of the Georgia Conflict
EU Investigators Debunk Saakashvili's Lies
Pour l'UE, c'est la Géorgie a ouvert les hostilités
EU report: Georgian attack started war with Russia
10/3 Update:
Link to the actual report: Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia
Commentary by Venik: War in Georgia: Reviewing EU Findings
Earlier blog entries related to this topic:
Georgia update... - Nov 22nd, 2008
Georgia... - Sep 7th, 2008
Immediate Response?!? - Aug 25th, 2008
Georgia (updated)... - Aug 15th, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - Aug 11th, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
An inconvenient truth...
Georgia: Coming Clean on Saakashvili's war links to reports re the testimony of the former Georgian ambassador to Russia, Erosi Kitsmarishvili, before a Georgian parliamentary commission looking into the dispute between those two countries. Inconveniently for Saakashvili he departed from the party line that the Russians were the complete aggressors...
More of interest to this blogger was the name of the parliamentary commission tasked with looking into what happened... It is the "Temporary Commission to Study Russia’s Military Aggression and Other Actions Undertaken with the Aim to Infringe Georgia’s Territorial Integrity." Heh, no wonder his testimony was poorly received!
Previous posts:More of interest to this blogger was the name of the parliamentary commission tasked with looking into what happened... It is the "Temporary Commission to Study Russia’s Military Aggression and Other Actions Undertaken with the Aim to Infringe Georgia’s Territorial Integrity." Heh, no wonder his testimony was poorly received!
Georgia update.. - November 22nd
Georgia - September 7th
Immediate Response - August 25th
Georgia (updated) - August 15th
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - August 11th
Boundary issues - August 9th
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Georgia update...
Getting Past Mythmaking In Georgia in the Washington Post makes some points - in the recent conflict Georgia made the mistake of starting the hostilities; the Russians were ready; Saakashvili is no gift to democracy; and the U.S. should support Georgian democracy but not get too attached to any one person...Nothing particularly new to anyone with a modicum of sense, or for that matter to anyone who has followed this blog's entries on the subject, viz. Two-edged sword (South Ossetia) - August 11th; Georgia (updated)... - August 15th; Immediate Response?!? - August 25th; Georgia... - September 7th.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Georgia...
Photo credit: EPAGeorgia perhaps not just some innocent victim... Some of its 'lustre' is diminished, and people are taking a harder look... except Dick Cheney!
EU capital faces Georgia and Russia propaganda campaign
Georgia's propaganda war
Georgian opposition: 'time for tough questions has come.'
Cheney: Georgia will be in our alliance
Previous blog entries:
Two edged sword (South Ossetia) - August 11th
Georgia... (updated) - August 15th
Immediate Response?!? - August 25th
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Cluster...
Photo credit: Simon Conway/ Landmine Action
News from the recent Russo-Georgian "war' over South Ossetia... Claims that Russia had used cluster bombs during the spat now turn out to be very much in doubt, while the Georgians have admitted to the use of these weapons.
HRW's flawed 'Research' on Georgian cluster bombs
HRW Continues False Cluster Bomb Accusations
Note: The "Russian" use of cluster bombs was picked up and widely reported, presumably as proof of their evil nature... Curious, since recently the biggest users of these munitions have been Israel and the United States (both of whom joined with China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Brazilin in opposing an international ban on the use of these weapons).
Monday, August 25, 2008
Immediate Response?!?
In the multitudinous articles on the subject, this blogger hasn’t seen much mention of the military activities that occurred in the region not long before the latest flare up in South Ossetia between Georgia and Russia.Apparently in the second half of July 2008 the Russians ran a military exercise, code-named Caucasus 2008, near the Russian-Georgian border. The Russian exercise scenario included a counterattack in support of Russian “peacekeepers” after they had come under (unspecified) attack, with additional aims to protect Russian citizens and provide humanitarian assistance, and involved approximately 8,000 troops.
Interestingly enough, in response Georgian troops conducted an exercise of their own at the same time. Code-named Immediate Response 2008, it also included a thousand U.S. troops, along with smaller contingents from the Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.
Internally, in South Ossetia, things started heating back up – an exchange of artillery between Georgian troops and South Ossetians on July 30th; a roadside bomb that killed five Georgian policemen and sparked fighting from August 2nd to the 4th; and then on August 7th South Ossetians claimed that Georgia had shelled Tskhinvali, while Georgia claimed that the South Ossetians had attacked Georgian villages. President Saakashvili initially announced a unilateral ceasefire and called for peace talks, but then sent ground forces into South Ossetia (since he/Georgia claimed that the South Ossetians had continued their attacks). The next day Russia intervened, took Tskhinvali and South Ossetia while expelling the Georgians, then advanced further into Georgia proper (Gori, etc.) and sent forces into the other breakaway province of Abkhazia…
There has been a lot of back and forth in the press and on many blogs, etc. re who “started” the war. One argument by the “Russia started the war” side that this blogger has seen has been “the Russians must have been planning this, how else could they have mobilized so quickly in response?” Well, this seems like a good explanation - they had just war gamed the entire episode. This raises the question of how smart it was of President Saakashvili to send in Georgian troops at this juncture, and why/how he could have been surprised by the Russian response! An “immediate response,” as it were….
Friday, August 15, 2008
Georgia (updated...)
Georgians rally in support of President Saakashvili. Photo credit: AFPThe delusional:
President Bush Discusses Situation in Georgia
Perhaps they miscalculated
Someone got taught a lesson
Bush, Rice demand Russia quit Georgia
On the money:
Intellectual Dishonesty and the Culpability of All
Russia-Georgia Conflict Fueled by Rush to Control Caspian Energy Resources
Georgia: A Blow to U.S. Energy
Illarionov: Thirteen Conclusions about the War
Conflict Exposes Obsolete Hardware
Russia's big Caucasus win
This is a tale of US expansion not Russian aggression
'We Are All Georgians'? Not So Fast.
Misc:
Georgia - Wikipedia
South Ossetia - Wikipdia
War photos:
Photos - milkavkaz.net
Photo Gallery - Spiegel Online
What the U.S. should do... a) Stop the blathering and unhelpful sabre-rattling, everyone knows there is not much we can do right now, all that the yakking from the administration is doing is reminding everyone of this fact! b) Work, quietly, to defuse the situation... that is reduce the confrontation and possibility of flare ups... c) Get both sides to pull back - initially partial pullbacks are OK, don't insist on the (unachievable) maximum... d) Deploy the humanitarian aid... e) Georgians have rallied around their President, but once things calm down they are going to start questioning his tactics and effectiveness... When that happens, don't prop him up, in fact a slight shove might be a good idea (we want allies but not hotheads who can't control themselves in sticky situations)! f) Later move cautiously towards recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The South Ossetians have voted for independence in 1992 and 2006 in referenda as democratic as the Georgian elections (that the administration is trumpeting). Short-term some will perceive this as a Russian victory, long-term it will be their worst nightmare (giving ideas to the North Ossetians, Chechens, and a whole host of host of other "Russian" provinces... )
Updated August 18th: Examples of bluster: On her way to an emergency meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that Russia is playing a very dangerous game... warned that NATO would not allow Moscow to win in Georgia... that the alliance would punish Russia for its invasion of Georgia... "We are not going to allow Russia to draw a new line..."... that the French would be seeking "an explanation from the Russians for why the Russian president either won't or can't keep his word."... and so on.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Two-edged sword (South Ossetia)
So the South Ossetians don't want to be part of Georgia, and declared independence. OK. However, most have taken Russian passports. Hmm, this blogger wonders if they have thought this through. Are they really sure that they would rather embrace the Russian bear (which is loath to let go once it has its claws into you!)? Now we have the Russians "defending" the (nominally independent) South Ossetians against Georgian "aggression." Have they thought this through? Obviously their intention is to fold South Ossetia into Russia, but they may be sending the wrong message (independence) to the North Ossetians (and other regional ethnic minorities)...
Meanwhile the U.S, Germany, and NATO no doubt will come to regret their embrace of Kosovar independence... Once you start messing with international borders in many parts of the world there is a huge amount of down-side risk! Here we are seeing what may be the first fruits of that decision...
South Ossetia - Wikipedia
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