Random charts - hospital closures

Source: ‘Leaving billions of dollars on the table‘ Rural hospitals foundering in states that declined Obamacare

Vulture down

 Photo credit: Radio Sai

Earlier blog entries had looked at the unfortunate demise of vultures in Asia (specifically the Indian subcontinent), e.g. blog entry here. 

Having decimated the vultures there, apparently it's now the turn of Africa, see: "Almost half the vultures in Africa are on the brink of extinction because they scavenge on meat poisoned by farmers, a report by BirdLife International has warned..."

Climate denial?

Source: Global Warming: How to approach the science

Previous blog entries related to climate:
More on climate - Jan 31st, 2010
Climate change and doubt - Jan 24th, 2010
Meet Dr. Rajendra Pachuri - Jan 23rd, 2010
We wuz wrong - Jan 23rd, 2010Saving the day... - Dec 20th, 2009
Skimmed milk masquerades as cream - Dec 17, 2009

The article Distinguishing Climate "Deniers" From "Skeptics" discusses "... What factors would distinguish a rational, pro-science "skeptic" - who has honest questions about the HGCC consensus - from members of a Denier Movement who think a winter snowstorm means there's no net-warming of the planet? ..." and does a great job looking how each group responds to factors such as: differing notions of expertise; the presence (or lack of) humility; an understanding of 'Cui bono?'; etc.

The 5 characteristics of scientific denialism is another article that relates to this subject. It "... defines denialism as "the employment of rhetorical arguments to give the appearance of legitimate debate where there is none, an approach that has the ultimate goal of rejecting a proposition on which a scientific consensus exists". They go on to identify 5 characteristics common to most forms of denialism ..." which are: conspiracy theories, fake experts, cherry-picking, impossible expectations of what research can deliver, and misrepresentation and logical fallacies. A good article, even if it would seem to imply that these are tactics that only are deployed by the one (negative, denialist) side of the argument...

Hmm, what's a layperson to make of all this? The more he reads the more this blogger's head hurts. It’s the Sun, stupid claims that "... solar scientists are increasingly conveying a clear message on the chief cause of climate change: It’s the Sun, Stupid..." (which does not coincide with the IPCC position). Aah, the pain.

Then Huge CO2 `Burps’ from Oceans May Have Contributed to End of Last Ice Age suggests that "... scientists concluded that CO2 would build up over thousands of years in the deep ocean, and then periodically be released into the atmosphere in a large “burp.” These CO2 pulses were massive, roughly equivalent to the amount of CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning since the industrial revolution..." and "... that the CO2 “burps” — coupled with the warming and cooling of the Earth driven by changes in the planet’s orbit around the sun — may have played an important role in past cycles of glaciation and deglaciation..." So, now we need to factor in planetary orbits and the possibility that the oceans will regurgitate all the carbon dioxide they have stored since the "burp" at the end of the last ice age? Presumably were this to happen this would dwarf current emissions even were the countries of the world to agree upon and implement massive cuts in emissions? What does this do to the calculus?

Next up, Global Warming: How to approach the science which appears to be very skeptical, especially about the forcings and feedbacks that are claimed to account for most warming. "A doubling of CO2, by itself, contributes only about 1C to greenhouse warming. All models project more warming, because, within models, there are positive feedbacks from water vapor and clouds, and these feedbacks are considered by the IPCC to be uncertain... The higher sensitivity of existing models is made consistent with observed warming by invoking unknown additional negative forcings from aerosols and solar variability as arbitrary adjustments..."

It really doesn't help the layperson that most reporting is incredibly shoddy, and that good articles that treat the subject fairly and comprehensively are few and far between. There are a few exceptions, and two are below - Der Spiegel's 8-part account of the recent "crisis", and The Economist's observation that "... There are lots of uncertainties in climate science. But that does not mean it is fundamentally wrong."

Climate Catastrophe: A superstorm for global warming research
The science of climate change: The clouds of unknowing

Source: Global Warming: How to approach the science

Intl Vulture Awareness Day

September the 5th is International Vulture Awareness Day 2009. From the IVAD 2009 web site "Vultures are an ecologically vital group of birds that face a range of threats in many areas that they occur. Populations of many species are under pressure and some species are facing extinction. The International Vulture Awareness Day has grown from Vulture Awareness Days run by the Birds of Prey Working Group in South Africa and the Hawk Conservancy Trust in England, who decided to work together and expand the initiative into an international event."

Photo Gallery of 10 Vulture Species — International Vulture Awareness Day!

Blog entries mentioning vultures:

Misc updates: vultures needed - Jul 26th, 2009
Science and side effects... - Oct 29th, 2008

Misc updates...

Needed: vultures...

Photo credit: Radio Sai

The October 29th, 2008 blog entry, Science and side effects..., discussed a couple of the side effects of the massive vulture die-off in Bombay and India. One example was a huge surge in the population of wild dogs, resulting in an increase in rabies deaths among the population. According to this article, Is Decline in India’s Vulture Population Linked to Spread of Rabies in Humans? the Indian government has launched a plan to sterilize eight million stray dogs over the next ten years...

Needed: new legislation...

Picture source: Wikipedia

The March 29th, 2008 blog entry, Medellin, covered the SCOTUS decision in Medellin v. Texas, which allowed the state to go ahead and execute Jose Ernesto Medellin (who had been convicted of the rape and subsequent murder of two girls). Medellin had argued that the police had not informed him of his right (pursuant to the Vienna Convention) to have the Mexican consulate notified of his arrest. In an oped last week in the New York Times, "Lawlessness North of the Border", John B. Bellinger III (a lawyer, was the legal adviser to the State Department from April 2005 to January 2009) argues that the Obama administration should "seek narrowly tailored legislation that would authorize the president to order review of these cases and override, if necessary, any state criminal laws limiting further appeals, in order to comply with the United Nations Charter." Good luck with that! It is unlikely that the Obama administration will move on this issue - although it may be the right thing to do, you know that the "soft on crime" attacks would immediately begin, and the administration is unlikely to risk political capital on this issue...

Needed: outrage leading to action... (and a sense of perspective)

Photo source: Let's See Change

Apparently the "Skip Gates affair" has shocked... shocked... some, who are lamenting that the U.S. apparently is not post-racial, the election of Barack Obama as President notwithstanding... An example is one Lawrence Bobo... Now this blogger can't say that he has any idea at all who this gentleman is, other than that he has written an article on the incident, What Do You Call a Black Man With a Ph.D.? This blogger, for one, was not shocked that racism still exists in the United States. What he is shocked about, nay appalled, is that the folks like Bobo and many others are surprised, and acting as if this is a revelation! Are they so oblivious, wrapped in their academic coccoons? Almost four years after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans the truth about what appears to be a series of racially motivated killings that occurred in the area at that time has not been full uncovered... and in fact is not even seriously being investigated.
Mr. Bobo, please read this article, "Katrina's Hidden Race War', find a true sense of outrage, write opeds, and petition the administration to do something to have this seriously investigated! Skip Gates is an erudite and well-spoken person, who is listened to and who has a friend in the White House. Please also get him engaged in this effort. Oh, and bye the bye, how about an explanation re why this does not outrage you as much as your friend's minor (in comparison) inconvenience...

Misc updates...

1. The June 27th entry, 'On the road to extinction' reprised a January 2002 oped on flora and fauna in Afghanistan endangered by the decades of war and strife. This month the National Environment Protection Agency of Afghanistan just released a list of protected species, including mammals, birds, and plants...

2. The April 22nd, 2008 entry, 'WMD aren't what they used to be' reprised a May 2006 oped on the subject... What is a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) lists some of the definitions...

Redefining "too big to fail"

Painting 'Behemoth and Leviathan 'by William Blake (1823), via Wikimedia Commons

It seems to this blogger that the concept of "too big to fail" needs to be thought through and an agreed upon definition arrived at, and this not especially for the current crisis but in anticipation of the next! (Note: this blogger is assuming that the 'business cycle' is not going to be abolished any time soon, even though every so often business begins to believe that this is actually possible and that they have discovered some magical model that is exempt from it!) After all what exactly does it say that companies that currently are so close to fitting the description of "too big to fail" are being swallowed up by other companies.

OK, so Bear Stearns was so big (and its tentacles were so deeply intertwined with so many other parts of the financial system) that when it began to fail the U.S. government stepped in and facilitated its purchase by JP Morgan Chase rather than allowing it to fail. Bear Stearns was deemed "too big to fail"... Subsequently JP Morgan Chase also acquired WaMu when it failed. Surely, by definition, JP Morgan Chase is now also "too big to fail"!! Similarly, Bank of America purchased Merrill Lynch, is it now also "too big to fail.'

It seems to this blogger that the government's response to saving the companies "too big to fail" is to facilitate the creation of even bigger companies that presumably then also become "too big to fail." Is this really a good idea? Taken to its (very exaggerated) logical conclusion and looking a few decades ahead, after the next few bubbles there will be one BIG financial company! Then what that one fails, it's time to turn off the lights...

Note: (From Wikipedia) "In Jewish belief, Behemoth is the primal unconquerable monster of the land, as Leviathan is the primal monster of the waters of the sea and ZIZ the primordial monster of the sky. There is a legend that the Leviathan and the Behemoth shall hold a battle at the end of the world. The two will finally kill each other, and the surviving men will feast on their meat. According to midrash recording traditions, it is impossible for anyone to kill a behemoth except for the person who created it, in this case the God of the Hebrews." Hah, behemoth is "too big to fail."

On the road to extinction

As noted in OPED13 “Unnoticed victims of the Afghan wars" (written January 2002 and reprinted below), Afghanistan's flora and fauna were under pressure from the years of fighting. Now an added pressure is coming from demand from foreigners for items related to endangered species...

“Afghanistan's snow leopards have barely survived three decades of war. But now the few remaining mountain leopards left in Afghanistan face another threat -- foreigners involved in rebuilding the war-torn country.

Despite a complete hunting ban across Afghanistan since 2002, snow leopard furs regularly end up for sale on international military bases and at tourist bazaars in the capital. Foreigners have ready cash to buy the pelts as souvenirs and impoverished Afghans break poaching laws to supply them.”

Foreigners threaten endangered Afghan snow leopards


OPED 13 Unnoticed victims of the Afghan wars (Jan 2002 reprint)

Though you'd be hard-pressed to find it in the news, other things equally devastated by Afghanistan's decades of war are the flora, fauna, and the environment of the country. The problems these face have a direct impact on the future of the country, and their deterioration will complicate and hinder the recovery and rebuilding process.

Topography: Covering an area of 647,500 square mile, Afghanistan is slightly smaller than the state of Texas. It is a rough, mountainous country divided by the Pamir and HinduKush ranges. The Hindukush run across the country from north-east to south-west, with lower ranges radiating in all directions. The west and south are lowlands, while the east and southeast are foot hills to the mountains. Afghanistan's climate is influenced by the topography, with low rainfall of 23-37cm, except in the southwest where it is often less than 12cm. A major part of the precipitation is as snow. In the south and east this melts quickly, while in the mountains the snow cover lasts. Most of the precipitation usually falls between October and April. Afghanistan's rivers are fed by mountain streams. In the north is the Amu Darya, which receives water from the Pamirs, in the central part of the country is the Harirud that flows to the west/northwest to the border with Iran, and in the southwest is the Helmland river, which starts in the central Hindukush then passes through the southwest and passes into Iran. Afghanistan has a few, small lakes, and some salt marshes on the western border with Iran.

Besides the destruction of towns, villages, and infrastructure, continuous war since 1979 has also wreaked the following havoc:

• Afghan fauna typically were animals well adapted to arid steppe or mountainous conditions. The wild asses and gazelles which roamed in herds across the steppes have been mostly exterminated. Their predators, cheetah and hyena, have thus also declined. Other predators such as the Turanian fox, the snow leopard, wolf, and lynx have almost been exterminated for their furs - not surprising in this decimated country where a single leopard fur can command $2,000 on the black market, a sum that can mean the difference between life and death. Animals in rugged and isolated areas, such as the Marco Polo sheep in the high mountains, have been slightly protected by their isolation.
  

• Very large numbers of birds (the Siberian crane, flamingos, falcons, mallard, etc.) once flew through Afghanistan during their migration from Siberia to India and Africa, stopping at resting places in the Afghan lakes. Estimates are that these numbers have fallen by 85% due to the ongoing wars as they have chosen alternative migratory routes.
  

• Much of Afghanistan's vegetation has been cleared for farming or destroyed in the war. Villagers and refugees have been cutting down trees for fuel for cooking and heating, others have been and are clear-cutting vast quantities of trees (pines, oak, cedar, walnut, etc.) for sale in neighboring countries. Much of south-east Afghanistan was once forested, but now less than 2% of the country is forested, and this is disappearing at an alarming rate.
  

• Deforestation and the clearing of vegetation has greatly increased soil erosion by water and especially by wind. A drought that has lasted for several years has also exacerbated the situation. The small percent of good arable land has been losing its carrying capacity. Soil erosion has partially filled reservoirs with sediment, decreasing the ability to generate electricity. Existing irrigation tunnels have been damaged by bombing .

Thus we see that besides the people the very land has been ravaged by the years of war. Klaus Toepfer (Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program - UNEP) in December '01 called for environmental issues to be part of any international recovery program for Afghanistan. As he stated so well, "A healthy environment is a prerequisite for sound and sustainable development. People can not secure real and sustainable economic development against a background of contaminated water, polluted land, and marginalized natural resources"